The Middle East and Africa (MEA) are expected to represent a declining share of projected new business jet deliveries, according to Honeywell Aerospace’s latest Global Business Aviation Outlook. The report, published in October, showed the region representing just 3% of worldwide demand, which was half the 6% market share envisioned by the company's 2023 report.

Honeywell’s researchers concluded that North America will account for two-thirds of new jet deliveries between now and 2029, marking a 2% uptick since the 64% tally recorded last year. Latin America is expected to double its share, rising from 5% to 10%, but like the Middle East the Asia-Pacific region (7%) and Europe (13%) are set for decline.

The MEA region's business aircraft fleet has contracted slightly since 2021 and 2022, but, according to Honeywell, has outpaced global growth rates in 2023 and 2024. Of 832 aircraft in the region, 54% are operated out of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and South Africa. The company sees further expansion of demand for new-production aircraft driven by the prevalence of high-net-worth individuals in this part of the world.

Conflicts Stifle Flight Activity

While global flight hours were reported to be 1.5% lower year-on-year, this year the MEA region has seen a 13% dip, which Honeywell attributed to the fallout from regional conflicts. Honeywell's data team told AIN it believes worldwide flight activity decline in 2024 is a part of a reset trend following the exceptional post-Covid spike in 2022. While it expects a return to growth in 2025, it acknowledged that continued conflict could undermine that trend.

The latest forecast calls for the delivery of 8,500 new-production business jets worth $280 billion over the next decade. In the 2032/2033 timeframe, the number of jet deliveries the avionics and aircraft engines manufacturer expects remains unchanged from last year’s prognostication, reaching the 900-per-year unit plateau for the first time since 2008.

To gather its results for the 10-year forecast, Honeywell surveyed 375 non-fractional operators representing 1,488 business aircraft worldwide. For the first half of the decade, purchase plans remained on par with those reported in last year's survey, indicating that demand for new aircraft is stabilizing above pre-pandemic levels.

The survey anticipates that large-cabin jets will account for one-third of the delivery total and two-thirds of the revenue value over the next five years. For 2025, the forecast calls for deliveries to increase by 12% over this year’s anticipated total of 750 jets.

When operators were asked about their anticipated flight activity in 2025, an overwhelming 90% indicated that they expected to fly the same or more than they did this year, echoing last year’s results and indicating continued optimism in the post-Covid period.