Aviation consulting firm Altea this week predicted softening prices for some preowned large, long-range business aircraft as available inventory swells. At the same time, the London-based group said the impact of U.S. tariffs on imports from Canada could have a particular impact on the movement of Bombardier aircraft, such as the Montreal-based airframer’s Global family.

 Altea partner Andrew Butler said the number of available business aircraft has just passed 3,000 units for the first time since April 2021. These aircraft are selling faster with an average of 200 days, compared with the 400-day average in early 2021.

Altea’s data shows a 25% increase in the availability of preowned long-range Gulfstream jets, with 66 available at the end of 2024, compared with 52 at the end of 2023. Albeit from a lower base, Bombardier Global aircraft have experienced a 62% jump in availability.

“As with the Gulfstreams, we have more first-time owners jumping in at the deep end of transferring across from charter where they have been flying in the longer-range, larger-cabin models, when this size is not necessary for their needs,” Butler said. “They then get cold feet as a $4 million annual running cost for a Global 5000 was not what they had in mind.”

Prices Could Fall Further

According to Altea, prices for long-range, large-cabin jets fell by an average of 8% in 2024, and the company predicted this trend could accelerate. For example, 2024 saw asking prices for long-range, large-cabin aircraft fall on average by 8%, said Altea partner Andrew Butler. “If this year follows that same trajectory, the bizjet industry may find itself in a situation where it mirrors the flat market witnessed post-financial crisis circa 2010.”

More specifically, Butler predicted that if U.S. tariffs continue to escalate against Canada, as an aircraft-producing nation, it could suppress demand. In early February, as it published 2024 financial results, Bombardier said uncertainty around tariffs meant that it could not issue the usual guidance to investors for this year.

“This can be considered a serious threat to Bombardier’s prospects over the next four years,” he commented. “As an indication, since the introduction of the...Global series of aircraft—namely the 5500, 6500, and 7500 variants—Bombardier has delivered approximately 50% of this fleet to U.S. owners or entities. With such a large proportion [of aircraft] heading south from Montreal to its near neighbor, that surely must focus minds at Bombardier.”

Altea is also predicting an uptick in demand for so-called bizliner aircraft, such as VIP versions of Boeing and Airbus airliners, with older aircraft now approaching replacement age. The company anticipates that this could lead to opportunities for both airframers to market new models based on their current production Max and Neo models, especially in export markets such as the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia.