Business aviation’s largely upward trajectory could be truncated due to recessionary fears spreading westwards across the Atlantic to North America, according to early market indicators tracked by data specialist WingX. In a presentation to the British Business and General Aviation Association (BBGA) annual conference on Tuesday, WingX managing director Richard Koe warned that the industry may soon have more aircraft deployed than can be supported by demand levels.

“The average number of hours flown per aircraft is currently between 60 and 65 flight hours per month,” he reported. “But we are starting to see a bit of a gap between the number of aircraft coming into the market and activity levels, and there is now concern about a potential recession in the U.S., and the charter market is where we will see the turn first.”

Also on Tuesday, aviation consulting group Altea signaled that the market may have reached a high point, predicting a drop in preowned aircraft values this year. “For example, 2024 saw asking prices for long-range large-cabin aircraft fall on average by 8%,” said Altea partner Andrew Butler. “If this year follows that same trajectory, the bizjet industry may find itself in a situation where it mirrors the flat market witnessed post-financial crisis circa 2010.”

Since the presidential election in November, the U.S. industry has been in strong growth mode, reinforcing the country’s dominant position accounting for roughly two-thirds of the global market by most measures. But Koe pointed to this week’s stock market losses and business concerns over the impact of U.S. tariffs as potential disruptors of business aviation demand.

WingX flight activity data for business jets and turboprops in January and February showed North America sustaining growth of 1.9% compared with the same period in early 2024. By contrast, Europe declined by 0.6%, and Asia-Pacific and Australasia were flat, while Latin America grew by 5.7%, Africa by 6.1%, and the Middle East by 0.2%.

According to Koe, January was the busiest month the company has recorded, and overall business aviation globally has increased in volume by 35% since pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Within the overall numbers, Part 135 charter activity grew more slowly at 20% over this period.

Fluctuations within European Market

Within Europe, WingX has observed significant fluctuations in market conditions. “The UK has been, relatively, a stronger market with 4% growth, but Central and Eastern Europe has fallen off a cliff due to the collapse of Russian demand there,” Koe explained. “But there has been a big increase [in flight activity] in Turkey and southeastern Europe due to a Russian presence there, and southern Europe around the Mediterranean has seen transformative growth.”

Overall, Europe’s business aviation sector declined in the post-Covid era. Germany took the biggest hit with an 18% drop, while Italy and Spain both recorded growth of almost 30%.

Comparing operating models, WingX’s data shows aircraft management as accounting for the largest share of flight activity, with fractional ownership showing the strongest growth at 59% since 2019. “[By contrast], the corporate flight departments are small and dropping,” said Koe.

Fractionally owned fleets increased by 12.2% between 2019 and 2024 and at a higher rate of 16.2% since the start of 2024. Over the same periods, corporate fleets have declined by 3.8% and 9.1%, respectively. Managed fleets grew by 5.7% between 2019 and 2024, while privately owned aircraft increased by 5.7% and charter fleets by just 0.1%.

Over the past six years, WingX data shows the super light jet sector in Europe growing by 30.9% and super midsized jets by 39.4%. During the same period, heavy jets, midsized models, bizliners, and “entry-level” jets all saw double-digit declines. Koe pointed to the Embraer Phenom 300, the Pilatus PC-24, the Cessna Citation Latitude, and the Bombardier Challenger 300/350 models as having been in highest demand so far this year.