The business aviation community continues to try to absorb the ramifications of the White House’s rollout of global tariffs, but leaders are warning aircraft owners and operators to obtain expert advice on the applicability before they conduct a transaction or upgrade their aircraft. They also warn to be aware that the tariffs likely will have a broader economic impact, which in turn could affect aircraft valuations.

Using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, President Trump on Wednesday rolled out global tariffs, announcing a baseline of 10% worldwide and, for imports from many countries, “reciprocal” tariffs that could become up to 50% higher. The 10% tariffs take effect on April 5, while the higher amounts start April 9. Most EU members, key markets in aerospace trade, are facing 20% additional tariffs, China 34%, and Switzerland 31%. Brazil remains at 10%.

The announcement did not change the tariffs already assigned for imports from Canada and Mexico, and the exemptions under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)—including aircraft and certain components—remain in place for those countries. 

Speaking during an NBAA webinar yesterday, Jonathan Epstein, partner at Holland & Knight and member of the NBAA regulatory issues advisory group, noted that aviation has been largely duty free since 1979 under the World Trade Organization’s agreement on trade and civil aircraft but said the tariffs are now less clear for aircraft and parts from countries outside of Canada and Mexico, as well as parts that do not qualify for the USMCA. “We’re going from years of sort of stability to the only thing we know now is the change [and] there’s going to be potentially more change.”

Adding layers of complexity, there are numerous murky areas with the tariffs, such as accounting for the percentage of U.S. material in an import. For instance, the tariff would only be assigned to the portion of an aircraft that was French or Swiss-built and not components that might come from the U.S.

Also, there is a “transformed” component, so if a green aircraft is sent out of the U.S. for a completion or an in-service aircraft for an upgrade, then that work may be subject to tariffs. Making it even more complicated is how to assess a tariff on aircraft that are produced overseas and then sent to the U.S. for either assembly or completion for delivery. Epstein said these aircraft are “substantially transformed,” so the tariffs may not apply or may not fully apply.

But tariffs will matter for the import of aircraft in the used market, as well. They are not expected to cover the sale of fuel.

NBAA hosted the webinar to answer some of the numerous questions swirling around about what the tariffs mean for business aviation. NBAA senior v-p of government affairs Kristie Greco Johnson, who moderated the panel, opened by cautioning that the webinar was just a preliminary assessment and the industry is awaiting more specific guidance. “There are quite a few uncertainties that still exist,” she said, and she encouraged operators to seek legal counsel separately for specific questions.

Greta Peisch, partner with Wiley Law and former general counsel for the Office of the United States Trade Representative, noted that the tariffs were “a long time coming,” with Trump discussing them for decades and certainly during his campaign. She noted different messages surrounding them, including raising revenue, addressing the trade deficit, and creating negotiating leverage.

“There’s a lot of things going on and a lot of competing interests that the administration is trying to achieve here, which has led to some of the complexity of the tariff action,” Peisch noted.

On the leverage front, the White House has built-in flexibility to adjust the tariffs based on negotiations with other countries, and that has already started to take place, she added. “It does seem as if this is a jumping-off point to have those conversations. Now, how fast those go, it’s a big question,” Peisch said.

Peter Greenberg, international affairs director for the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, discussed the “high level of anxiety” that came ahead of the announcement, which has only been heightened since.

He noted that there was already a temporary shutdown of an auto plant in Windsor, Ontario, which is going to impact more than 3,000 workers. “So that has ripple effects even though obviously separate industries have separate tariff regimes,” Greenberg said.

In aerospace, the tariffs could affect U.S. companies and their customer base around the world, leading to layoffs, he further cautioned. “The Canadian labor movement has been generally aghast. Many of the workers work for multinational companies that cross the border and have requested our support,” he added.

Meanwhile, Ehsan Monfared, a partner with YYZlaw and member of NBAA’s regulatory issues advisory group and tax committee, agreed that the macroeconomic effects will matter.

“We're seeing more concerns from a macroeconomic level by our clients who are buying or selling aircraft over the last couple of months,” Monfared said. “Many buyers and sellers accelerate the process to complete the importation process into the U.S., and as much as possible, we’ve been negotiating in terms into the purchase agreements to deal with all the uncertainty [of] these rolling announcements and exceptions that have been made.”

Pointing to the roils in the stock market and a drop in consumer spending that comes with uncertainty, he said, “the likelihood that the cost of just basic goods for consumers goes up. That will put a broader damper on consumer spending, and that’s always been a key thing that was a leading factor in terms of clients making decisions to invest in business aircraft. I think that’s the biggest concern that we have.”

He further noted that the U.S. aerospace industry has been a net exporter. “It's been a massive success, with the likes of Boeing, and this puts that all into threat both in terms of those specific industries as well as the underlying consumer sentiment which drives them.”

JetAviva CEO Emily Deaton noted that the tariffs have been “a very hot topic of conversation” for those in an ongoing transaction. While some may have worked to accelerate deals, others have questioned whether they should “press pause,” Deaton said, “which is what no one who works in an aircraft sales environment really wants to hear.” The situation is difficult to absorb, she added. “It’s a complicated topic, it’s hard to understand, and it’s very case-by-case specific.”

Further, Deaton agreed that the uncertainty can affect the stock market, which affects wealth and, in turn, movement in the marketplace. Further complicating things are potential factors such as the return of bonus depreciation or interest rates coming down. “It’s just a lot for people to process and typically, in these kinds of environments, it takes a little while to settle out before we can get a true read on the market and what it’s going to mean moving forward.”

This makes it more important that people rely on experts and don’t go at it alone, particularly in the current government. She also cautioned that all of this could affect aircraft values.