Business aviation industry analyst Brian Foley is calling for worldwide business jet shipments to “get out of their 700-unit-per-year rut and approach 900 units as soon as 2024, but not later than 2025.” But he expects any production increase this year to be incremental, as “some aircraft manufacturers are temporarily stuck on the sidelines unable to fully capitalize on the current market upswing.”
Foley noted that Gulfstream, which in the fourth quarter reported its best order activity since 2008, cannot add more production capacity until 2023 due to a temporary wing shortage. Thus, he said, the Savannah, Georgia-based company expects to produce 124 jets in 2022, just five more than it did last year, during a time of increasing demand.
“Competitor Bombardier isn’t in much better shape to capture the market upswing right away,” Foley added. Despite backlogs swelling by $1.5 billion last year, 2022 deliveries are only ramping up by a “little bit.” While Bombardier said it is just being "conservative," Foley believes the company does not want to further increase already high debt levels by spending more on procurement and capacity expansion. Another factor is the closure of its Learjet production line last year.
However, he said, Gulfstream and Bombardier are anticipating a 15 to 20 percent production increase next year, which will help pave the way to break the 900-unit-per-year barrier.