MEBAA 2018 opens today as industry participants look for direction in an uncertain market. Some 35 aircraft were on static display on the eve of the show, including a Boeing 787 Dreamliner, an Airbus A340, two Bombardier Global 6000s, and an Embraer Lineage 1000E, as well as a single-engine Cirrus Vision Jet making its MEBAA debut.

MEBAA’s involvement in organizing the biennial show is likely to give the industry a shot in the arm by helping it move ahead from recent issues caused by an 18-month boycott of Qatar by a number of fellow Gulf Cooperation Council members and a slowdown in business aviation in Saudi Arabia.

Exhibitors include DC Aviation Al-Futtaim; UAS International Trip Support; Italy’s Milano Prime; UAE-based Online Global Trip Support, which is launching its Traviators booking service at the show; and ExecuJet. 

The MEBAA Conference takes place on days two and three of the event, December 11 to 12. After an opening session featuring Jamal Al Hai, deputy chairman, Dubai Airports, and member of the UAE Federal National Council and OEMs led by Khader Mattar, Bombardier v-p of sales, MEA, Asia Pacific and China, will address the question of private aircraft design. Later sessions will study the merits of blockchain for business aviation, threats from cybersecurity, and the availability of bizjet finance.

Sessions will take place between 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. on both days on the floor of the exhibition at the show site. The conference’s second day will deal with climate change, with an address by Kurt Edwards, International Business Aviation Council (IBAC) director general, while a panel will look at innovation within the business aviation industry. Connectivity specialist Gogo Business Aviation will address the issue of improving passenger connectivity. Opening second day speaker will be Badr Al-Olama, head of Aerospace at Mubadala Investment Company. 

Fair Winds Awaited

Middle East weathervanes are waiting to be picked up by fair winds. Confidence in the market today is brittle. Growth is said to be low single-digit in the UAE and the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Officialdom is doing its best to paint a rosy picture, but, like the NBAA Show in October, it’s all a little flat. A slowdown in Saudi business aviation and the boycott of Qatar have done little to buttress regional optimism. The go-go days of a decade ago seem like an apparition that has vanished in the sand.

Pointers are swinging in various directions, and it is hard to get a feeling about exactly where the industry is headed. In one breath, it seems that occasional green shoots of industry assurance, partly down to the tacit support of the Trump administration, could be replicated in the Middle East by sure-footed businessmen and governments. In another, it seems as if the regional industry needs a shot in the arm to survive the Saudi and Qatari shenanigans until a full-blown long-term recovery starts to take shape.

Aircraft manufacturers are optimistic that new models like the Bombardier Global 7500, the Embraer Praetor 600, and the Dassault Falcon 8X, the last featuring in the MEBAA static display, will find favor with discerning Middle Eastern buyers. Lawyers and financiers utter certainties for the immediate future that have been belied by activity in the last 12 months: unusually for the region, preowned aircraft have been attracting some attention of late, and it is unclear how difficult buyers of new aircraft will find it to return to the market.

Oil prices this year haven’t helped, rising above $70 per barrel in the past 12 months, which makes flying more expensive. Dubai’s economy is said to have caught a cold, with too much new construction now underway, as real estate values lose traction. For a moment, Dubai’s leadership doesn't seem so sure-footed.

As the migration from Dubai International (DXB) to Al Maktoum International (DWC) continues and gathers momentum, the process seems to be going in the right direction, with general agreement that a majority of business aviation movements are taking place at DWC, as called for by the authorities. Some FBO operators at DWC report that the situation offers some promise, but others long for a return to the situation even three years ago, when business aviation activity had more of a spring in its step. 

What’s clear is that Arab business aviation has made an indelible mark on the global industry and is making a name for itself around the world. Some 70 percent of the world’s widebody bizjet aircraft are based in the Middle East. Arab hospitality is becoming a byword for the world’s best. When the global industry turns the corner, the Middle East business aviation community will be ready. For them, an upturn cannot come fast enough.