Market data analysis specialist JetNet (Booth Y077) yesterday released its forecast for the worldwide business jet market, which suggests that airframers should not complain too much about Europe, and that sales will continue to pick up in the U.S.

Europe has been a growth market, as the fleet was, 20 years ago, only 25 percent the size of today’s fleet. It has grown eight times faster than the GDP over the 2005-2014 period, the highest multiple of any world region, Rolland Vincent, the creator of JetNet’s intelligence quarterly (JetNet iQ), said.

The fleet now stands at around 2,600 jets, which shows how important the region is, although manufacturers often seem to rank Europe low in their priorities, behind BRIC countries and the U.S. “This is the second bizjet community in the world and it has just started growing,” Vincent said.

There may be other factors than GDP in Europe, such as a fascination for large business jets and the strong Euro, Vincent suggested. The recent decline of the Euro (versus the U.S. dollar) may even be “the biggest thing going on in the European market.” Forty-five percent of the responders in JetNet’s survey think this stops them from purchasing. Nevertheless, 35 percent of them expect to fly more in the short term, thanks to low oil prices.

In the U.S., the economy rebound should be seen as good news, said Vincent. There has been a multiplier of about two between GDP growth and fleet growth in the country. As it accounts for more than 60 percent of the world’s fleet, every small percentage of GDP growth is expected to translate into numerous sales.

A potential roadblock is the under-utilization of today’s fleet, Vincent noted. JetNet measured fleet growth against aircraft movements and saw that there was much more activity per aircraft in the early 2000s, and realized overcapacity in the U.S. is the equivalent of 3,000 jets. “We are still in a hangover,” Vincent said.

He sounded cautious about China, often seen as a high-growth market. “China is less than two percent of the fleet and will stay there for a while,” he said. He mentioned the lack of infrastructure, which may hamper the growth of business aviation–for example, there is only one FBO in Shanghai (Hawker Pacific), a 24-million inhabitant city. o