In the short time since business jets were introduced to China, the market has already experienced a full cycle, from a peak in 2009 to today’s trough. “In China, there hasn’t yet been a steady period of sales normalcy and predictability, only extremes,” said aviation analyst Brian Foley. “Eventually, a more representative market will emerge somewhere in between.”

In 2009, sales of large-cabin business jets in China were robust; today, the country’s slowing economy and austerity are putting a damper on sales. “It seems to be a universal axiom that when a country’s economy is in a down cycle, political leaders and shareholders deprecate business aviation,” Foley noted.

During the U.S. financial meltdown in 2008, politicians were quick to denounce auto industry executives for flying their private jets to Washington, D.C., to ask for financial assistance. “China’s current austerity movement is essentially the same reaction, just presented a little differently,” Foley said. “Once economic recovery firmly takes hold, denunciations are eventually forgotten and buyers no longer feel the need to take cover.”

According to Foley, China will move beyond the current slow patch and begin to see some improvement next year. He noted that the Shanghai Composite Index, a leading indicator, has nearly doubled in the past year to a seven-year high, with a favorable environment for further government stimulus. “As investors and companies gain confidence in financial market vitality and stability,” Foley noted, “we’ll begin to see more discretionary income move into general aviation.”

Overall, he sees the Chinese business aviation market as a “nice adjunct” to industry sales. “The region will offset sales that the industry lost to the worldwide decline in the fractional segment, helping to diversify and sustain the global business jet market,” Foley concluded.