The recapture of Ramadi by Iraqi troops backed by 650 coalition air strikes in a six-month period indicates that Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) is making some progress in its stated aim of defeating ISIL forces in Iraq and Syria. Another significant recent development, according to the U.S. Centcom spokesman, has been the targeted killing from the air of 10 ISIL leaders. By the end of 2015, there had been a total of 9,220 airstrikes in the 17-month campaign, two-thirds of them over Iraq and one-third over Syria. 

The U.S. has conducted three-quarters of all those airstrikes. Although participation by Arab forces has declined, France increased its effort after the terrorist attacks in Paris in early November, and the UK Royal Air Force is also now bombing Syria after a parliamentary vote reversed a 2014 decision against such action. The French are flying Dassault Mirage 2000s from Jordan and Rafales from the UAE and the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle. They launched Scalp cruise missiles for the first time last month. The British have sent more Tornado GR.4s plus—for the first time—Typhoons to RAF Akrotiri, Cyprus. The German air force is now contributing A310 air tankers and the electronic combat/reconnaissance (ECR) version of the Tornado. The latter can perform strike missions but have not been cleared to do so by Berlin. Iraq’s own contribution has included some F-16 missions and the first use of some Chinese CH-4 UAVs that it acquired, apparently firing anti-tank missiles over Ramadi. 

The proportion of OIR missions that return without expending weapons has been reduced from 50 percent in mid-2015 to about 30 percent now, according to the Centcom spokesman. Earlier in the campaign, it was as high as 80 percent. Improved intelligence is the main factor, since coalition leadership has reportedly not relaxed the rules of engagement. British Prime Minister David Cameron told Parliament that the air campaign is “entering new phase, increasingly focusing on ISIL's command and control, supply lines and financial support.” Campaign spokesmen only recently began reporting a concerted effort to interdict the shipments of oil from ISIL-controlled territory, which are thought to be the terrorists’ major source of funding. 

Russian airstrikes on Syria have continued from Hmeymim airbase, apparently without further support from longer-range air or missile systems. Mi-35M attack helicopters have now been deployed there. There have been no more incidents along the Turkish border. Russia has activated the S-400 air defense missile system that it deployed to Syria, but this has not affected coalition operations, according to a U.S. spokesmen for OIR. Moscow denied allegations by the U.S. and NGOs that its airstrikes had caused disproportionate civilian casualties.   

The targeted killings imply persistent datalinked feeds of Sigint as well as video from ISIL-controlled areas. U.S. and British Rivet Joint aircraft are providing some of this, and probably also U.S. high-altitude U-2 and RQ-4 Global Hawk platforms. But Sigint sensors onboard U.S. Predator and Reaper UAVs are likely also contributing, since these are the platforms of choice for such actions. An anonymous  UAV operator working for U.S. special forces told The Intercept website in early 2014 that the majority of targeted killings relied on cellphone-tracking technology. The MQ-1 Predator can carry a basic Comint-only version of the Northrop Grumman Airborne Signals Intelligence Payload (ASIP), a larger version of which is being fitted to the U-2 and RQ-4. A version designated ASIP-2C was scheduled for integration on the MQ-9 but was cancelled in 2014, according to U.S. Air Force budget documents. Meanwhile, an improved version of the Lynx synthetic aperture radar that was custom-developed for the MQ-9 by GA-ASI was also due to be fielded last year. The Block 20A version of the Lynx can locate and track dismounted targets such as individuals.