French President Francois Hollande will fly to Qatar next Monday to witness the signing of contracts between that country, Dassault Aviation and MBDA for 24 Rafale combat jets plus weapons. According to reports in the French media quoting unidentified French government sources, the deal will be worth up to $7 billion and include an option for 12 more aircraft. It will include the training of 36 pilots and 100 technicians, the sources added.

The new sale follows closely the confirmation by Egypt and India that they will buy 24 and 36 Rafales, respectively. The value of those sales has been reported as between $3.3 billion and $5.8 billion (Egypt) and $5.5 billion (India), making the total potential value to Dassault, MBDA, Safran, Thales and other French industrial partners on the Rafale as high as $18.3 billion.

“This new success for the French team demonstrates the Rafale’s operational qualities and confirms the confidence that countries that are already users of the Mirage 2000 have in our company,” said Eric Trappier, chairman and CEO of Dassault Aviation. Egypt, India and Qatar all operate the French delta jet. Dassault added that its partners “and the 500 companies associated with the Rafale program are delighted at the announcement of this new contract, constituting further proof of their competitiveness, and their industrial and technological know-how.”

Trappier’s reference to countries that already operate Mirage 2000s may have further significance. After a meeting earlier this month with the president and crown prince of the UAE, French foreign minister Laurent Fabius said that negotiations to sell the Rafale to the UAE “had progressed.” The Emirates have never publicly confirmed a formal requirement for new combat jets, beyond some additional Lockheed Martin F-16 Block 60s. But both Team Rafale and the Eurofighter consortium have been marketing their rival products, amidst indications that the UAE may buy 60 more fighters from Europe.

The latest French success in Qatar does not bode well for the Eurofighter consortium. The Typhoon competed against the Rafale there, and in India, and is also up against the French jet in Malaysia and elsewhere. With Saab having achieved a strategic export success for the Gripen in Brazil, which may eventually acquire more than 100, and well positioned for new business from Eastern Europe, the export prospects of the third ‘Euro-Canard’ are fast diminishing.