Only one in five of allied combat aircraft sorties over Iraq and Syria have dropped a weapon, according to statistics from the U.S. Central Command for the first five months of Operation Inherent Resolve. By the end of December, a total of 6,981 close air support/escort/interdiction sorties had been flown, plus 2,164 ISR sorties and 1,992 airlift/airdrop sorties. No fewer than 4,828 tanker sorties had been logged, during which 28,956 air-to-air refuelings were undertaken. The average daily cost of the operation is $8.2 million, according to the Pentagon.
Evidently, legitimate targets that meet the coalition’s strict rules of engagement have been hard to find, a process made more difficult by the avowed absence of coalition forward air controllers on the ground. Lt. Gen. James Terry, the American commander of the coalition, told journalists in Washington last month that airborne ISR plus good coordination with the Iraqi army was identifying ISIL targets. ISIL released images of eight Iraqis that it killed, claiming they were informants for coalition airstrikes. Terry said that airstrikes “are having a significant effect on [ISIL’s] ability to command and control, to resupply and to conduct maneuvering.” He also claimed that “Iraqi security forces have retaken many critical areas,” citing Mosul Dam, Baiji and six other locations.
But ISIL retook Baiji shortly after he spoke, and the coalition strategy to retake significant territory in Iraq relies on the rebuilding and deployment of the Iraqi army, plus its acceptance by ISIL-controlled populations, including tribal forces. The country’s new defense minister—appointed after a long delay—said this month that the reconstruction and reform process is at an early stage. The first eight of the Iraqi air force’s 36 new Lockheed Martin F-16C/Ds are being flown to the U.S. Air National Guard’s F-16 training base at Davis-Monthan AFB, instead of to the airbase at Balad. “It takes some patience as we continue to build the Iraqi security forces out there,” commented Terry, suggesting a three-year timescale for this. But, he added, “the strategic advantage and tremendous strength of the coalition will ultimately lead to the defeat of [ISIL].”
Meanwhile, over Syria, a Jordanian air force F-16 was lost near Raqqa on December 24, and its pilot captured by ISIL forces. The U.S. blamed mechanical failure, but Jordanian media reported that the pilot’s relatives had learned he was shot down at 400 feet by a heat-seeking missile. Nothing more has been heard of the pilot’s fate, but an anti-ISIL group in Raqqa reported a failed rescue mission to extract foreign hostages from Syria by helicopter on January 2. The Coalition for a Democratic Syria, a U.S.-based expatriate group, published a map showing that ISIL and other jihadists had substantially expanded their areas of control. “Gaining territorial control in Syria through airstrikes has not been our mission,” commented a spokesman for U.S. Central Command.
