While Bombardier posted growth in 2024 and sees promising market momentum, uncertainties surrounding potential 25% U.S. tariffs against Canada cloud its anticipated results going into 2025. As such, the Canadian-based manufacturer held off on providing guidance for this year as it usually does when it releases its year-end results.

“I am very disappointed that we can’t guide 2025 today,” Bombardier president and CEO Éric Martel told analysts this morning, releasing the company’s 2024 year-end results. “In the past four years, Bombardier has created such a strong track record of meeting but also exceeding commitment. The team and I were well prepared to confirm our 2025 objectives today, but in light of the current tariff threat, not providing guidance is the most responsible and transparent thing for us to do.”

He stressed the need to exercise caution to see how tariffs unfold, especially given the changes that occurred over the past week. “There is a lot at stake for our industry,” he said, then agreeing with the General Aviation Manufacturers Association’s assessment: “Given the global nature of the aviation manufacturing industry, these proposed tariffs, as well as potential reciprocating tariffs, could have an enormous impact with many unintended consequences on the industry.”

He noted that Bombardier has 2,800 U.S.-based suppliers across 47 states that create tens of thousands of U.S. jobs, adding that it would have an equally significant impact on both sides of the border. “The vast majority of our platforms are made up of more U.S. parts and systems than any other country.” Martel cited wing work on the Global 7500 in Texas and service centers it owns in five different U.S. states.

“Over the years, Bombardier has created a reciprocal trade balance with the U.S. that can be demonstrated where both we and the U.S. have an equal win. This industry has been built through decades of collaboration,” he said.

Impacts would vary by product line, with the Challenger 3500 most vulnerable given its success in the U.S. Globals have a larger international presence, Martel said, adding that he did not anticipate the services business to be as impacted. He estimated that the U.S. represents about 50% to 60% of its aircraft deliveries.

However, Martel stressed that while Bombardier enters 2025 with caution, “Let me be very clear, caution doesn’t mean at all a thing that breaks.”

He pointed to the favorable market conditions across business aviation and the fact that flight hours have remained high, while preowned inventories are still at a healthy range. “Most importantly, the demand for new aircraft is solid,” Martel said. “Orders continue to come in from around the world, and we have observed more activity versus the same period last year. This includes a fair share from the U.S…We have not seen cancellations.”

He noted that Bombardier’s customers are market savvy and do not anticipate as much longer-term risk. “The general belief is if there are tariffs, the duration will be short.”

Martel added that his teams remain “very engaged” with customers, and Bombardier has developed contingency plans for multiple scenarios should it face delivery complications. “All the scenarios we studied are allowing time [so we will] not be forced to act rapidly,” he said. “We are prepared…We don’t have to react quickly. We’re going to have time to understand what it means. If we have to react, then we will be ready to react.”

Further, Martel noted that details on how the tariffs might be implemented and whether there would be any exemptions are still uncertain. But he said his team has been in Washington trying to make a case for such a scenario.

As far as preparations, having cash reserves is a factor, he told analysts. Potential production adjustments would be further down the line in a worst-case scenario. Given the nature of the business, it is difficult to pivot quickly.

However, Martel also said, “If we do end up facing this, I am comforted by the fact that we are not the same company that we were in 2020 or even in 2021 and could navigate through any kind of challenges.”

He pointed to solidly growing services businesses throughout the U.S., progress on the defense business, and a diversified backlog, particularly with large business aircraft set for delivery in international markets.

Having said that, “The U.S. does remain our core customer and shareholder base. Our focus is on finding solutions with a long-term view should tariffs disrupt our ability to perform to the level of our ambition in the short term,” Martel continued. “But until such a scenario presents itself, we will continue to cautiously press forward this year based on the fundamentals we have built.”

Martel’s remarks follow the release of a backgrounder from the Canadian Business Aviation Association noting that the potential tariffs signal “a significant shift in U.S.-Canada trade relations, with potentially broad economic consequences. If Canada responds with countermeasures, the business aviation industry may see disruptions in cross-border travel, higher operating costs, and potential regulatory hurdles.”

Noting plans to continue working with stakeholders and governments alike on the issue, CBAA said this calls for close monitoring for aircraft operators, manufacturers, and suppliers.