A new report is forecasting the business jet market will grow nearly 40 percent—from $30.1 billion this year to an estimated $41.8 billion in 2030. Issued by market intelligence researcher Market to Market, the report estimated a 4.2 percent compound annual growth rate over the forecast period driven by an increasing number of high-net-worth individuals and the replacement of aging fleets.

The study pointed to a Bombardier projection that 2,000 business aircraft will have retired between 2016 and 2025. Environmental regulations and airspace modernization are reducing the retirement age of business jets and leading to increased replacement, the report further contended. Demand for premium amenities onboard aircraft and services overall is spurring growth in the aftermarket, the report added.

“Due to environmental regulations and steps of various governing bodies toward a greener environment, it is expected that many business jets across the globe will face restrictions in terms of operating limitations,” and will play a key role in the business jet market.

However, the report acknowledged the market faces uncertainties given the dependence on variables such as the global economy, fuel prices, and available funding. Rising fuel prices could not only push purchase decisions but also serve as an operational deterrent, affecting services. Fuel pricing further could push up charter costs, in turn affecting demand. “High fuel prices have made the growth of the business jets market sluggish in some countries, posing a challenge for the market,” the report maintained.

Additionally, the report delved into the eVTOL market, seeing opportunities in areas where business jets don’t currently serve, but it noted the need for improved battery capacity and infrastructure.

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