With data from the full third quarter, JetNet iQ provided an update on its State of Market Briefing Tuesday at NBAA-BACE, saying market mood is at the “strongest optimism we’ve ever measured in 11 years.” JetNet iQ creator Rolland Vincent said that sentiment was derived from responses from 500 survey participants. Seventy-eight percent of respondents said business aviation was past the low point in the cycle.
While optimism among owners and operators may be strong, Vincent said supply is not keeping pace with demand. “The market is hot. Now, what’s not hot? The supply is not hot,” said Vincent. “The supply chain is struggling. We’ve got unprecedented labor issues [and] nobody’s talking about it.”
He said during 2020, suppliers shed large chunks of their workforces—by as much as 30, 40, or 50 percent. “We have not recovered. I’ve talked to Tier 1s, Tier 2s, people who supply the Honeywells and the Gogos and the others of the world…and they’re telling us they’re struggling to get back up. So as an industry, it’s great to see the mood but we’re very much watching the supply because the supply is not rebounding as demand has.”
Longer-term, Vincent said the expectation is for tighter aerospace supply chains with OEMs dealing with fewer suppliers and more sourcing of parts from domestic and regional suppliers.
In terms of aircraft orders, JetNet’s (Booth 601) forecast calls for increased orders for light and the middle part of the jet market. “These aircraft provide a tremendous capability for the dollar and they also offer probably all the range that most people are going to need,” said Vincent. The updated forecast calls for 8,529 business jet deliveries worth $244.9 billion in revenue between 2021 and 2030. Of those deliveries, 42 percent will be for small jets while 24 percent will be for midsize jets. Large jets will account for 34 percent of deliveries during that period.
Other parts of the survey revealed that 31.9 percent of respondents currently don’t use sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) but expect to in the future, while 37.9 percent have no plans to use SAF.
