Business aviation industry analyst Brian Foley believes that OEMs Textron Aviation and Gulfstream Aerospace are primed for a rebound in deliveries of new business jets, possibly as early as the third and fourth quarters of this year. Foley, who runs his own consultancy, Brian Foley Associates, noted in an analysis today that the bump would follow year-over-year declines of 36 percent and 16 percent in 2020 business jet deliveries at Textron Aviation and Gulfstream, respectively.

“Business jet manufacturers are undoubtedly hopeful that they can claw back at least half of what they lost in 2020 deliveries compared to 2019,” Foley wrote of Covid-19's impact on the industry. “There is reason to believe that the industry can achieve this and could even recover faster than the OEMs themselves are predicting.”

Citing Amstat data, he anticipates the resurgence in orders and deliveries due to preowned business jet sales “that were on fire” last year as transactions climbed 13 percent. Also, utilization of business aircraft last year was off by only 10 to 15 percent versus 2019, even though business travel had “fallen off a cliff” due to the pandemic.

“This suggests that when business travel does return, presumably in the last half of the year, utilization could easily surpass pre-pandemic levels and stimulate new sales,” Foley concluded.