More than 450 members of the International Aircraft Dealers Association (IADA) heard from a panel of experts on an April 9 webinar on the business aircraft market and its path forward in light of the Covid-19 global pandemic, including predictions on the length of recovery once the crisis passes. At least two panelists said during the member-only webinar that a full recovery will likely take between 18 and 24 months, according to IADA.

Embraer Executive Jets president and CEO Michael Amalfitano, who also serves as the OEM member of the group’s board of directors, expected the recovery to be “maybe a U-shaped or even an L-shaped-type structure. It’s going to take a long time to systemically recover.” Teal Group v-p of analysis Richard Aboulafia also told IADA members to expect a lengthy recovery, one that would most likely follow the development timeline for a vaccine. “This is roughly an 18-month situation,” he said. “That’s true for the vaccine. That’s probably true for oil prices. It’s probably true for a lot of the economic fallout.”

Still, IADA members seemed upbeat about the fortunes of the preowned business jet market. More than 72 percent of respondents to a poll conducted during the webinar indicated they were very optimistic about the market post-pandemic, even though more than 65 percent expected a 10 to 15 percent drop in pricing.