The Trump Administration's 30-day ban on flights from most of Europe in an attempt to contain the COVID-19 coronavirus will have a marked effect on business aircraft flight activity, according to data from WingX advance. Announced last night, the ban begins at midnight tomorrow and applies to the Schengen Area of Europe but excludes the UK. It will not apply to U.S. permanent residents or immediate relatives of U.S. citizens.

Using a five-year average of March data from WingX, business aviation traffic could fall by 446 flights, carrying 3,072 passengers, during such a travel ban. Further, it noted that business jet flights since mid-February on these same non-UK flights from Europe to the U.S. are down 12 percent from a year ago.

It is currently uncertain how the U.S. government will enforce the ban. While it applies to anyone “physically present” in the Schengen Area in the past 14 days from traveling to the U.S. through UK and Ireland, the U.S. hasn’t yet clarified how it would prevent someone originating in Europe from flying through London to New York, for example. U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s APIS does not require a declaration of places one has traveled over the past 14 days, raising the possibility of a loophole.

Meanwhile, the FAA has not yet published a notam regarding these European flight restrictions.