The drive toward a widespread expansion of so-called urban air mobility (UAM) is gaining momentum worldwide, powered mainly by hype for the time being. Start-up companies are vying with established aerospace players to be at the vanguard of early adoption of new aircraft designs that they say can transform the availability of air transportation, not only within urban areas but also by connecting conurbations—and in rural areas, as well.

There are now anywhere between 150 and 200 new aircraft programs at various stages of development, ranging from pipe dreams to within sight of service entry. Many of these aircraft are harnessing electrical power in a bid to be more environmentally and economically sustainable, with multiple electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft taking shape. Other programs are looking beyond electricity to alternative energy sources such as hydrogen fuel cells.

Autonomous operations (i.e. no pilot on board) are also on the horizon for both cargo- and passenger-carrying flights. According to Guillaume Thibault, a partner with consultants Oliver Wyman, operators could reduce costs by as much as 30 to 40 percent without pilots on the payroll.

However, given the technical and regulatory complexity of introducing new power sources and autonomous flight controls, it is not surprising that many of the innovators are taking a more gradual or hybrid approach on both scores. As a result, many of the new aircraft feature a conventional engine driving electric motors and others are being developed to be optionally piloted.

Similarly, not everyone is taking the VTOL path. Others are opting for new short takeoff and landing (STOL) designs combining fixed- or tiltwings and electrical power.

In fact, the various architectures being advanced by the urban air mobility pioneers are bafflingly diverse, encompassing concepts such as multicopters (with as many as two dozen mini rotors), lift-and-cruise combinations, tiltwings, and tiltrotors.

Some companies are focusing on aircraft with a tight mission specification to serve short hops of little more than 20 miles in dense, urban areas. Others are developing platforms to challenge conventional airliners on flights as long as 700 miles or more.

Dubai Seeks To Be Early Adopter

Unsurprisingly, given its precocious track record in air transportation, Dubai harbors ambitions to be a UAM early adopter. In 2017, city officials announced plans to conduct flight trials with two eVTOL aircraft pioneers, China’s EHang and Germany’s Volocopter. Ahead of the 2019 Dubai Air Show, it remained unclear when these initiatives might come to fruition, and neither company is exhibiting at the event. Dubai has stated an intention to conduct 25 percent of all passenger travel within the emirate by autonomous modes of transportation by 2030.

In June 2017, Volocopter signed an agreement with Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority to conduct a five-year test program to evaluate the case for launching autonomous eVTOL air taxi services in Dubai by the end of 2022. In September 2017, the UAE’s Crown Prince Hamdan bin Mohammed Al Maktoum was a passenger in a public demonstration of Volocopter’s early VC200 prototype.

However, Volocopter now appears more focused on plans to launch its air taxi services in places such as Singapore, where it last month conducted a public flight demonstration and unveiled its concept for the VoloPort ground facility. It also has made flight demonstrations this year at Helsinki International Airport in Finland and in the center of the German city Stuttgart.

Also, in 2017, EHang conducted demonstration flights with its 184 eVTOL prototype aircraft. The company is now developing a single-seat 116 model and a twin-seat 216. However, it appears to be focusing efforts to make its autonomous aircraft operational in markets such as China, where it enjoys the close cooperation of local aviation authorities.

Uber Elevate, the aviation division of ride-sharing group Uber, has identified Dubai as one of several cities to be among the first wave of its plans to introduce eVTOL aircraft service based around its flight booking app. The U.S. group is partnered with five or six eVTOL aircraft developers and intends to launch trial operations in 2023. However, lately, its priorities seem to be focused on launching service in cities such as Dallas and Melbourne, Australia.

In March 2019, the Dubai Police took delivery of the first production example of Hoversurf’s Scorpion S3 “flying motorbike” and the U.S./Russian manufacturer has supported training for at least two police officers since then. According to Brigadier Khalid Nasser Alrazooqi, general director of Dubai Police’s artificial intelligence department, the vehicles are expected to be used in law enforcement operations during 2020.

Bullish Market Projections

The more bullish UAM contenders would have us believe that the first of the new wave of aircraft could be in commercial service on a limited basis as soon as 2023. Their critics would argue that, given the complexity of the change process, this is fanciful propaganda propagated by start-ups to keep investors motivated. More conservative elements believe that it will be closer to 2030 before urban air mobility has put down sustainable roots.

Overall, there is a growing consensus that urban air mobility will, sooner or later, represent a viable element in the wider business aviation and air transport equations. "The Change Is In The Air" study by accountants Deloitte published earlier this year forecast that in the U.S. alone, the eVTOL market could be valued at $17.7 billion annually by 2040, after rising steeply from $3.4 billion in 2025.

In August, Nexa Advisors, in association with the Vertical Flight Society, published its Urban Air Mobility—Economics and Global Markets report, which forecast a 20-year market value of $318 billion between eVTOL aircraft manufacturers, operators, and infrastructure providers. The report sees growth being concentrated across some 74 metropolitan cities around the world.

In a similar vein, a June 2019 report by investment bank UBS predicted that the introduction of hybrid electric powerplant for aircraft engaged in both urban air mobility and regional airline service could generate a new market worth $178 billion as soon as 2028. A key component of the UBS research is testimony from more than 2,000 travelers in the U.S. and Germany about the extent to which they are reducing their air travel use on environmental grounds. Overall, 22 percent said they had already reduced air travel for this reason and 38 percent said they would be willing to fly in hybrid-electric aircraft. That proportion rose above 50 percent among respondents aged between 18 and 44.

Pioneers at Dubai Show

In any case, several of the companies pioneering UAM and eVTOL aircraft developments are present at this year’s Dubai Airshow.

By around the end of 2020, Airbus (Pavilion P10) expects to have a clear picture of its long-term plans to develop new aircraft to serving what it views as growing needs for more efficient urban air mobility. The European airframer is very well aware that smaller and much younger startup companies are pursuing more urgent timelines but says that it prefers to take more time to ensure it delivers the right product.

Airbus has completed flight testing of its single-seat Vahana eVTOL concept, which has flown more than 100 fully autonomous flights since Jan. 31, 2018. Over the next 12 months or so it will conclude its evaluation of the four-seat CityAirbus model. What it learns from these programs will inform the company’s next steps in this sector, according to Eduardo Dominguez-Puerta, Airbus’s senior vice president for urban mobility.

The Vahana program has been led by A3 by Airbus, the group’s Silicon Valley-based technology hub, while CityAirbus is in the hands of Airbus Helicopters. It is still to be determined which part of the Airbus empire will take the lead in taking a series-production eVTOL aircraft to market. For now, it has created a division called Urban Air Mobility that includes its Voom helicopter charter partnership.

“Having lived and worked in Silicon Valley, I’m well aware of the fail-safe-fail-cheap philosophy of many tech startups there, but this approach doesn’t work when you are planning to fly people over people,” Dominguez-Puerta told AIN. “We have a strong safety brand, and because of our track record, the regulators know we are serious about this. So we don’t want to take a short-term approach.”

With recent developments, such as the July 2019 announcement by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency of its new “special condition” SC-VTOL rules, the regulatory path to getting eVTOL aircraft certified is getting somewhat clearer. However, Airbus feels there is still some way to go before the type certification process for the new generation of urban air mobility aircraft is established.

What’s more, Airbus sees greater progress required to establish a clear legal, environmental, and social policy foundation for operating these aircraft in urban environments. Behind the scenes, the group is committing significant resources to working with all stakeholders to resolve these issues. It also sees significant challenges in terms of integrating the new category of aviation into the air traffic management system and believes that its in-house expertise in this area will give it an edge over new market entrants with shallow aviation roots.

Airbus’s extensive research into prospective urban air mobility markets has confirmed an insistence that the new aircraft don’t add to existing levels of air pollution. Noise, “visual pollution,” and privacy concerns have also been identified as significant factors in terms of social acceptability.

At Boeing (Booth A21-24), NeXt division, formed in 2018, appears to be hedging its bets in the eVTOL market. The U.S. aerospace group’s Aurora Flight Sciences unit has been developing its Passenger Air Vehicle, which made a first flight in January 2019. The prototype suffered a crash on June 4 during its fifth flight, and the company has yet to confirm when flight testing will resume or how the development timeline might be affected.

Boeing has since announced a strategic partnership with start-up company Kitty Hawk to develop its Cora eVTOL aircraft. It has yet to publish a clear timeline for its plans to enter the urban air mobility market, but there appear to be indications that the company considers this a priority.

Another leading business aircraft manufacturer, Embraer (Booth A47) also is setting its sights on urban air mobility and has been quietly exploring concepts under a working project title DreamMaker. Earlier this year, the Brazilian airframer issued an open invitation for customers and prospective customers to propose a name for the program.

At the Uber Elevate Summit held by rideshare technology giant Uber in early June, the company’s U.S.-based EmbraerX division unveiled a lift-and-cruise all-electric design, while providing almost no detail as to its projected performance and specifications. Nonetheless, Uber has named Embraer one of six prospective aircraft partners for its planned air taxi service.

The concept shown at the Washington, D.C., Uber event features a pair of aft ducted fans and eight lift rotors. EmbraerX, which has operations in Melbourne, Florida, as well as in Silicon Valley and Boston, said the design is based on “a broad range of tests and simulations, aiming at operational optimization for the urban environment” and promises high reliability, as well as low operating costs and noise. The aircraft is ultimately intended for autonomous operations.

Helicopter manufacturers Sikorsky (Pavilion P6) and Leonardo (C13018) have each worked on plans to extend their product range beyond conventional rotorcraft, but neither appears to be progressing on these for the time being. By contrast, Textron (Chalet S14), through its subsidiary Bell, unveiled its Nexus eVTOL aircraft early in 2019.

In 2010, Sikorsky started working on the Firefly program, a technology demonstrator for an electrically powered helicopter based on the Schweizer S-300C model. Despite apparently making some progress, the company abandoned the project two years later, perhaps due to a realization that battery technology still had some ways to progress.

Leonardo also started work on its Project Zero electric tiltrotor in 2010. As recently as early 2016, it was displaying its demonstrator on the international airshow circuit, but the Italian company’s work on the ducted tiltrotor ended in 2012. The company is reportedly still looking into possible eVTOL developments, but only at a very low level.

Endurance for the all-electric technology demonstrator was said to be no more than around 10 minutes and Leonardo indicated it intended to work on a hybrid version, backed up with a diesel engine. However, program leader Dr. James Wang has since left the company and now serves as chief technical advisor to start-up eVTOL developer XTI Aircraft, which is working on the TriFan 600 model.

Meanwhile, Bell unveiled the Nexus aircraft at the Consumer Electronics Show in January 2019. The design features a central wing, integrated landing skids, and a modified V tail topped by a short horizontal stabilizer. Its first flight is projected for 2020, with the aircraft expected to be certified in 2023. At last month’s NBAA show in Las Vegas, Bell exhibited an updated Nexus model with moving parts.

The Nexus is one of just a few eVTOL programs being advanced by a major manufacturer with relevant experience of bringing aircraft developed with related technology (i.e. helicopters) to market. What's more, Bell has firm partnership commitments from experienced aerospace groups including Safran (engines), Thales (flight controls), Moog (flight control systems), Garmin (avionics integration), EPS (energy storage), and Sumitomo (logistics and transportation).

The aircraft will be powered by a hybrid/electric distributed propulsion system feeding six tilting ducted fans, each powered by individual electric motors. The six-fan design is a compromise between quad- and octo-rotor configurations seen on other urban VTOL designs to provide system redundancy and space for passengers to safely embark and disembark while the vehicle is operating. The ducted fans also offer improved performance and a quieter noise signature than comparable open rotor designs, according to the company.

The Nexus propulsion system incorporates a series-hybrid layout in which a turbine engine feeds an electrical distribution system, which in turn routes power to a battery pack that drives the fan motors. In addition to providing system redundancy in the event of turbine failure, the series-hybrid architecture offers an upgrade path toward eventual fuel-cell and/or full-electric propulsion.

The prototype's cabin is configured in a "4+1" layout with room for a single pilot/operator in addition to four passengers. Projected range is 150 miles, with cruise speeds of around 178 mph anticipated.

Also present this week in Dubai is Jetoptera (Booth 1464), which is working on a novel VTOL aircraft design that it intends to be powered by its so-called Fluidic Propulsion System (FPS). The U.S. company has published very few details about this powerplant, beyond that it involves a combination of a gas generator and gas turbines. The transition between vertical and horizontal flight for the fixed-wing aircraft appears to be powered by the deployment of tilting ducted fans at the rear of the fuselage and flight surfaces.

In August 2019, Jetoptera announced that it had concluded the first phase of flight testing with an early prototype aircraft, which achieved both hover and vertical flight and speeds of over 100 mph. The prototype was powered by conventional electric batteries as the FPS is still in development.

The company says that it expects to be ready to fly an FPS-powered prototype, designated the J-220, next year. It argues that the FPS offers performance far superior to that of today’s electric batteries while acknowledging that it may subsequently switch to electrical power when battery technology advances sufficiently. GE Aviation is reportedly involved in the development of the FPS technology.

Another start-up looking to draw support here in Dubai is U.S-based Zeva Aero (Booth 1464), which was launched in January 2018 by CEO and chairman Stephen Tibbitts. The company is working on a distinctive disc-shaped single-seat eVTOL aircraft called the Zero that is intended for personal transportation. It is being designed for use in cities with a SkyDock unit that would allow it to be parked on the sides of buildings.

Zeva Aero is looking to close a $500,000 bridge round of funding by the end of this month. The company has yet to release any performance or specification details about the Zero model.

Engine Makers Step Up

At face value, you might think that conventional engine makers could feel threatened by the advent of electrically powered aircraft. But companies such as Rolls-Royce (Booth 1015), Safran (Booth A46), Honeywell (Booth 1249), GE Aviation (Booth A20), and Pratt & Whitney Canada (Booth 1320) have embraced the opportunity to show leadership in the move towards alternative powerplants.

In March 2019, Rolls-Royce started ground testing hybrid-electric propulsion based on its M250 turboshaft engine. This will be used to test Airbus's E-fanX airliner development program from 2020, with a first flight projected for 2021. The engine is projected to generate between 500 kW and 1 mW of power.

The UK-based engine maker also hopes to find applications with eVTOL programs. In June 2019, Rolls-Royce confirmed plans to purchase the electric propulsion division of Siemens and expects to complete this transaction by year-end.

In July, XTI Aircraft selected GE Aviation’s new Catalyst turboprop engine to provide power for its hybrid-electric TriFan 600 VTOL aircraft. The manufacturer has yet to build a full-size prototype, but GE is advancing work on the Catalyst.

In September, Boeing and Safran announced a joint investment in energy storage specialist Electric Power Systems (EPS). The undisclosed investment amount committed during a Series A funding round will help Utah-based EPS to develop a highly automated industrial base capable of producing aviation-grade batteries at far higher rates than is possible today. It will also support work to reduce the cost of the batteries, making them more viable for electric aircraft.

France-based Safran is involved in a number of eVTOL aircraft developments, including Bell’s Nexus, for which it is providing a new turboshaft to support its hybrid-electric powerplant. It has also been involved in Zunum’s ZA-10 fixed-wing program, which appears to be stalled due to a lack of funds, and, reportedly with MetroSkyways’ City Hawk.

EPS is already providing energy storage units for the Nexus model. It is also supporting Bye Aerospace’s electrically powered eFlyer fixed-wing aircraft.

Safran views the eVTOL sector as a launch pad for introducing electrical power to larger aircraft, and, in its view, improving the efficiency of energy storage is a key factor in achieving this. “We think that eVTOL is a significant business opportunity that still faces a lot of uncertainty,” Hervé Blanc, vice president of the group’s Electrical & Power division told AIN. “The eVTOL aircraft are perfect for demonstrating the benefits of electric and hybrid power solutions and we expect them to drive other opportunities with larger aircraft."

According to Safran, weight constraints for energy storage units are a far greater challenge for aviation than they are in the automotive sector. So too, are the ability to meet safety standards and to produce large numbers of batteries at an acceptable cost.

In Blanc’s view, power is more of a challenge for eVTOL aircraft developers than autonomous flight controls. “Autonomy is easier with aircraft than for a car,” he argued. “You take off from one fixed point and land in another, following a clear channel on the way so it’s much easier to define how this is done than it is for an autonomous car in the middle of traffic.”

Safran believes it may well take another five years to get eVTOL aircraft certified and in commercial service and that operations will likely start with cargo missions. “It is fairly easy to do a flight demonstration with just one prototype but getting a fleet of aircraft into service with the right level of safety and reliability will be another story, and demonstrating that the industry can achieve that will require a step-by-step approach,” Blanc commented. Safran also is working on algorithms to ensure that operators will know with a high degree of accuracy how much charge is left in batteries so that they can be sure of landing safely.

The company is looking to support both hybrid and all-electric aircraft. It sees the latter as being limited to flights of up to around 30 minutes with currently available energy storage technology, but it sees this shifting, as the power-to-weight ratio of batteries improves. “Getting to 300 kW/kg will be a game changer,” said Blanc. “The question is whether that will take one to two years or five to 10 years.”

Safran also has invested in Oxis Energy, which is developing new lithium-sulfur batteries. In July 2019, it acquired Neelogy, a France-based specialist in electrical current sensors.

Separately, Safran’s cabin products division has partnered with Uber to develop a cabin mock-up concept for air taxi operations. The first unit was displayed at October’s NBAA-BACE show and featured a four-passenger plus one-pilot layout. According to John Badalamenti, Uber Elevate’s head of design for advanced programs, the concept illustrates its expectations for passenger comfort and amenities from the aircraft that will be used for its ride-sharing services.

Meanwhile, Honeywell is developing a new hybrid-electric turbo generator that combines its 1,100-shp HTS gas turbine engine with a pair of 200-kilovolt generators. It believes this technology will provide a quieter, cleaner and more fuel-efficient powerplant for urban air mobility aircraft.

Transcend Air Corporation has selected Pratt & Whitney Canada to provide a version of its 1,700-shp PT6 turboprop to provide power for its hybrid-electric Vy 400 eVTOL model. The current status of this program is unclear.

Along with Honeywell, several leading aerospace groups are taking a leading role in developing avionics, flight controls and other cockpit systems for the new-generation aircraft. These include Collins Aerospace (Booth 1055) and Thales (Booth 835). In May 2019, Collins announced plans for a new electrical power development facility called The Grid in Rockford, Illinois, to harness expertise in this area from across the group. This includes UTC Aerospace Systems, which United Technologies merged with Rockwell Collins when it acquired the company.

Honeywell’s engagement with the urban air mobility wider electric aircraft sector is extensive. For Slovakia-based Pipistrel’s 801 fixed-wing model, it is providing avionics and flight controls. For Jaunt Air Mobility’s ROSA program, it is to supply avionics, navigation systems, flight controls, and powerplant too. It is also partnered with the UK’s Vertical Aerospace to provide flight controls for its Vertical eVTOL project.

Several Dubai show exhibitors are involved in developing the critical unmanned air traffic management capability on which these new generation urban air mobility concepts will depend. In fact, the challenges associated with safely integrating especially those aircraft intended for autonomous (i.e. pilotless) operation into public airspace have been identified as the biggest roadblock to these aircraft entering service. GE Aviation subsidiary AirXos is involved in development work to this end, as is Harris Corporation (GATM Pavilion) and Boeing NeXt with its partner Skygrid.