The preowned business jet market appears to be quieting from the active fall period, but aircraft brokers are remaining busy, according to Citi Aerospace & Defense analysts. Citi recently hosted business aviation brokers for a discussion of market trends, finding “overall sentiment was more muted versus the last time we hosted this event in September.” But Citi acknowledged the fall was marked by high transaction volumes and added that a slowdown is inevitable. “While the business jet narrative rode high through 2018 supported by tax cuts and business confidence, we think it will be a tough act to follow in 2019.”

The market slowed, especially for light jets, following the NBAA convention last fall with a more tumultuous stock market in December, Citi said, adding that anecdotally, stock market turmoil played a role in scuttling some deals.

Uncertainties surrounding a European slowdown or Brexit may play a greater role in the market this year, Citi added. “We sense there are more worries about what ‘could be’ versus ‘what is.’”

Even so, Citi added, “Things are a bit better year-to-date,” and said the preowned market remains strong. This is helping the new market as some of the manufacturers inch up their production rates and pricing. On the new market front, Citi believes manufacturers are in a better position to face another slowdown, should one occur. “[Manufacturers] have been better at matching supply to demand,” the firm said, adding that manufacturing discipline has helped contribute to the lack of high-quality preowned aircraft.

Key to new demand will be new product introductions and certifications, Citi added.