New business jet deliveries are expected to climb this year, though sales are projected to be more sluggish as world economies slow and recession risk rises, JetNet iQ managing director Rolland Vincent said this morning at the NBAA Business Aircraft Finance, Registration, and Legal Conference in Fort Myers, Florida. “We expect orders to soften this year,” he said, citing low oil prices, higher interest rates, the Brexit “fiasco,” waning U.S. tax reform effects, and tariff battles. “Market optimism is also coming off its peak in mid-2018.”

On the preowned side, Vincent said the lack of younger inventory will stymie sales this year, though trade-ins from operators upgrading to newly available models could somewhat alleviate this inventory shortage. Guardian Jet managing director Don Dwyer agreed, adding that demand for high-quality preowned jets remains strong. “Good airplanes don’t stay on the market long,” he said. “The absorption rate for many younger jet models has gone from two years to six months, prompting us to source foreign aircraft now.”

Meanwhile, the average fleet age is increasing “dramatically” as operators hold onto their aircraft longer—a behavior change resulting from the Great Recession, said Vincent. “We’re no longer in a five-year replacement cycle. Operators are now comfortable flying business aircraft that are more than 10 years old. We see no change in this behavior for a generation.”