A $57.9 million Gulfstream G600 is predicted to retain 89 percent of its value in 15 years and be worth $51.78 million, while the new Pilatus PC-24 is forecast to retain 88 percent of its $8.9 million purchase price in 2033, fetching $7.82 million. These are the highest among the predictions in Vref’s first-ever 15-year Residual Value Forecast released on Tuesday morning at NBAA 2018. It expects to publish this outlook annually going forward.

The aircraft valuation and appraisal service's forecast currently contains about 70 in-production business jets, turboprops, helicopters, and piston aircraft. Available at its website, it displays Vref’s projected year-by-year residual value of each model for the next 15 years.

“We feel pretty good about the numbers,” Vref president Jason Zilberbrand told AIN. “People ask whether it’s a crystal ball or magic, but the truth is we have 60 years of data and experience and we did a ton of research—not just looking at airplanes, but we included economic factors, too.”

In an industry that typically looks in the rearview mirror to fathom where the market is going, the Vref forecast represents a sea change in residual value determination, though it’s old hat in other industries. “In the car world, this stuff has been available for a decade,” said Zilberbrand, "but for whatever reason our industry has been the last to jump on board and use some of these analytical tools.” He admitted the relatively low consumption numbers of business aircraft complicate the long-term valuation process.

The forecast predicts most new aircraft will fall far short of the G600 and PC-24 value retention figures, however. The Cessna Citation CJ3 is forecast to retain a sizeable 74 percent of its $8.235 million cost over the next 15 years, but a new Citation XLS+ is estimated to keep just 15 percent of its $13.05 million list price by 2033, according to Vref.

Eventually, Vref intends to expand the forecast to include all production business and general aviation aircraft, as well as some narrowbody commercial airframes.

Meanwhile, Vref also released a new set of analytical charting tools this week at the NBAA show. This enables its subscribers to compare the Vref historical databases to numerous commodity charts, including Money Factor, CPI, PPI, and other indexes. The new tools “give aircraft traders and bankers and insurance agents more clarity” in making their business decisions, Zilberbrand said. 

The company is updating and enhancing the functionality of its website and the new tools “are the first step in what the new platform will do,” Zilberbrand said.