Aircraft value and appraisal services provider VREF will release its first-ever 15-year residual value forecast for all current in-production business aircraft in less than two weeks at NBAA 2018. The report, which VREF intends to publish annually going forward, will include outlooks for business jets, turboprops, fixed-wing pistons, and helicopters.

“VREF has more historical data than anyone [else], and this is a small step in opening up the historical archives to the consumer,” said company president Jason Zilberbrand. “A residual value projection in aviation can save buyers a small fortune. Knowing which aircraft can potentially retain its value is an appealing feature and something that more should research before picking an aircraft to purchase.”

Zilberbrand released residual forecast data for two business jets to AIN ahead of the report’s official release online at 9 a.m. on October 16. On the higher end of the scale is the $9.45 million Embraer Phenom 300E, which VREF estimates will retain 68 percent of its value—about $6.46 million—in 2033. As an example of average depreciation, he said, is the $24.5 million Gulfstream G280, which is predicted to retain 42 percent of its value—$10.25 million—in 15 years.

According to VREF CEO Ken Dufour, “Residual values are a key component to the appraisal process, and computing those values is part science and part experience, with new data needing to be correlated daily. Without substantial historical data, it is no small undertaking to forecast properly.”