Business aircraft values are expected to continue to fall through the end of the year, as older models remain on market longer, driving up inventory. Also, the number of sellers traditionally increases in the fourth quarter, according to market analyst Asset Insight.
The average asking price fell 6 percent during the third quarter, with all major categories declining, Asset Insight said. In the fourth quarter, large-cabin jet values are anticipated to fall 24 percent more quickly than they did in the third quarter, and light jets 13 percent faster. Midsize business jet values are also expected to decline, but at a slower 3 percent rate, while turboprop values are expected to increase.
Speaking to Aeropodium’s U.S. Corporate Aviation Summit this month in Washington, D.C., Asset Insight president Anthony Kioussis outlined a number of factors that have played into market dynamics surrounding pricing. "The higher-value aircraft—younger, well maintained—are selling relatively quickly," Kioussis said. But older aircraft that have more outstanding maintenance needs are sitting on the market. The greater the maintenance exposure, he said, depending on pricing, the longer those aircraft will remain on market.
“The reason why they are staying on the market so long…has to do with buyer and seller mentality,” he said. Buyers and sellers have different expectations. Buyers will seek price adjustments based on maintenance needs, which could bring the price of the aircraft well below where the owners want to sell. In some older models, the maintenance exposure can outstrip the value of the aircraft.
As these less desirable aircraft remain on market, supply continues to go up, Kioussis said. Sellers of older aircraft are unable to “buy up” without a buyer for their own aircraft. This continues up the chain of aircraft models and, given that most prospective buyers are existing aircraft owners, overall demand stays down.
Kioussis said this was just one factor affecting the market. Another involves the changing attitude of wealthy individuals. While their numbers have grown, people with newer wealth are part of a “shared ride economy,” meaning they would prefer to rent than own.
