Duncan Aviation estimates that roughly 6,000 of the business jets in its “core customer base” still need to be equipped with ADS-B _OUT to meet the U.S. Jan. 1, 2020 mandate. “That paints a pretty urgent picture of the industry. However, when you consider that ADS-B affects all aircraft, it's an even more dramatic picture,” the company noted. In fact, Duncan said that nearly 11,000 U.S.-based turbine aircraft still need ADS-B, while the total number of all aircraft in the U.S. that require installation of the NextGen avionics is closer to 74,000.

Brian Redondo, shop manager at Duncan Aviation's Fort Lauderdale satellite facility, said he is most concerned about the shortage of qualified installation labor to meet this demand. "During the RVSM mandate compliance phase, shops performing RVSM installations could hire technicians from other shops that were slow because their core customers were not affected by the mandate,” he pointed out. “That won't be possible with ADS-B, because every installation shop will be performing these installations for many years to come. And there is already a shortage of skilled labor as it is."

Duncan Aviation is thus urging business aircraft operators “to begin looking at their paths for compliance and schedule the work needed, and soon.”