The FAA is forecasting a mixed bag for general aviation through 2037, with deliveries and operations of turbine aircraft projected to increase, but piston aircraft deliveries and activity to continue to slide. Releasing its annual 21-year forecast this week, the FAA estimated that the active U.S. general aviation fleet size overall would increase at an average annual rate 0.1 percent through 2037, reaching 213,420. This compares with 209,905 estimated in 2016's fleet prognostication.
While still projecting the modest growth, the FAA scaled back its general aviation forecast for the second straight year. Last year, the agency predicted an average annual growth rate of 0.2 percent and, in 2014, the projections were 0.4 percent. The forecast, however, was curbed as deliveries fell for the second straight year. Even so, the FAA believes turbine aircraft will propel the industry long-term.
According to the agency, “The long-term outlook for general aviation, driven by turbine aircraft activity, remains stable to favorable.” The small level of growth is anticipated as “increases in the turbine, experimental and light-sport fleets offset declines in the fixed-wing piston fleet.”
The number of turbine business aircraft and helicopters is anticipated to increase by 14,700, or at an annual average growth rate of 1.9 percent over the forecast period. Business jets in particular are expected to increase 2.3 percent each year, the FAA added, noting, “The growth in U.S. GDP and corporate profits are catalysts for the growth in the turbine fleet.”
But the fixed-wing piston aircraft fleet is anticipated to contract by 22,500 aircraft, or a 0.8 percent per-year decline over the forecast period. “Unfavorable pilot demographics, overall increasing cost of aircraft ownership, coupled with new aircraft deliveries not keeping pace with retirements of the aging fleet are the drivers of the decline,” the FAA noted. The piston-fleet woes are anticipated to continue despite efforts such as the Part 23 rewrite and the new BasicMed medical option.
The smallest of piston aircraft, the light-sport category, is expected to continue exponential growth, growing by 4.1 percent each year to 3,355 in 2037. This is more than double the 2015 fleet size.
As for operations, the FAA has a stronger outlook for the total active general aviation fleet, projecting hours flown will increase by an average of 0.9 percent per year through 2037. The forecast for fixed-wing piston hours, anticipated to drop by 0.8 percent per year, mirrors that for fleet growth.
However, a forecast 2.4 percent a year jump in turbine aircraft hours (including rotorcraft) is expected to more than counter the decline in piston activity. Business jets are expected to lead the jump, with hours flown predicted to increase at an annual average of 3 percent over the forecast period. “The large increases in jet hours result mainly from the increasing size of the business jet fleet, along with estimated increases in utilization rates,” the FAA said.
In concert with the decline of the piston fleet and operations, the FAA believes the number of general aviation pilots—excluding air transport pilots (ATPs)—will drop by 7,500, down 0.1 annually, over the forecast period.
The agency believes the number of private pilot certificates will decline at an average annual rate of 0.7 percent and commercial pilot certificates will drop an average of 0.6 percent each year over the next 21 years.
This is despite a forecast growth of student pilots of 0.4 percent each year. Many of those prospective pilots will be headed to the airlines, though, with the number of ATPs anticipated to grow by 15,500, averaging 0.5 percent each year through 2037.
