When GAMA reveals industry deliveries during its annual “State of the Industry” media event on February 11, the report is expected to mark the first substantive upswing for business jets since the economy flew into the storm cell in 2008. While the final 2014 shipment reports were still filtering in during January, market indicators have remained positive and manufacturers are expressing a general feeling of optimism, particularly about the North American market, according to GAMA president and CEO Pete Bunce.
The optimism of the manufacturers, while still tempered with some caution, is shared by business aviation operators, NBAA president and CEO Ed Bolen said, adding that sentiment has been evident at the association’s conventions and gatherings over the past year. “I think the data will show that 2014 was one of the best years since going into the recession.”
Bolen noted that for the first time “in a long time,” all market metrics, from delivery reports to flying hours and used aircraft inventory, have improved.
Total airplane shipments were up 5.7 percent and business jet shipments were up 9.3 percent through the end of last year’s third quarter. Analysts such as J.P.Morgan’s Joseph Nadol III and Brian Foley of Brian Foley Associates have been predicting that business jet deliveries would end 2014, on a percentage basis, with an improvement in the low single digits.
This builds on the returns of 2013, when the industry stabilized, total shipments were up 4.3 percent and business jet deliveries began to turn for the better with an improvement of less than a percentage point.
The improved results follow five years of decline since the peak business jet deliveries of 1,313 in 2008 and recent-history peak of total general aviation deliveries of 1,815.
Business jet deliveries, which steadied at 678 in 2013, are still nearly half of those delivered at the peak.
Double-digit Growth Ahead
While numbers are expected to have grown in 2014, analysts believe that the market is poised for double-digit growth this year. Foley predicts 2015 will be the “pivot point when the industry, including its laggard segments, turns meaningfully upward.”
The long-suffering light-jet segment appeared to gain steam last year and is predicted to continue to rebound in 2015 thanks to a number of new products that are entering the market. Learjet’s 70/75 upgraded series has improved sales for Bombardier, while Cessna, Embraer and HondaJet are all bringing new light and midsize aircraft to the market.
Also bolstering the market, Bunce said, is improved access to credit, which has been particularly important for lighter aircraft. North America, the largest market for light and midsize business jets, has strengthened, providing a further bounce.
While that news is encouraging, Bunce notes that the industry remains a global endeavor, and manufacturers are watching the political environments in countries such as Russia and China, where government actions have slowed growth. Middle East activity could be hindered by the plummeting oil prices, he said.
Also concerning to Bunce is the fate of the U.S. Export-Import Bank, which was reauthorized through June after a difficult political debate over its fate. To Bunce, its reauthorization should not be up for debate, saying its renewal is “common sense” to create a level playing field internationally. “No other country is going to give up its export financing,” he said. But Ex-Im last year became controversial as part of “crony capitalism” that aided big international businesses at the expense of private banks and U.S. companies.
Uncertainty in foreign markets and financing brings risk to the large end of the business jet market, which was the first to rebound and has remained strong in recent years.
