Bombardier Aerospace’s latest 20-year market forecast, released on Sunday at the Farnborough Airshow, shows a significant drop in anticipated deliveries of business jets compared with its forecast from last year.

The current forecast, which spans from 2014 to 2033, calls for deliveries of 22,000 business jets worth $617 billion. Last year Bombardier predicted demand for 24,000 business jets worth $650 billion from 2013 to 2032. These numbers are for aircraft segments in which the manufacturer competes, with its Learjets, Challengers and Globals.

According to Bombardier, “Business aircraft orders are expected to remain challenging in 2014 across the industry, but projected to improve beginning in 2015.” The company sees demand shifting to emerging markets and thus driving growth of the medium and large jet categories, with the most rapid growth in the large segment.

The largest number of jets during the forecast period will be delivered to North American customers, followed by Europe and then China. The forecast sees deliveries of 950 jets in China from 2014 to 2023 and 1,275 from 2024 to 2033.