Business jet activity in the U.S. will decline by 0.1 percent in 2013, according to a forecast presented at NBAA ’12 by Avinode (Booth No. 2120). On a regional level, the forecast projects the south and west will experience a 0.4 percent and 1.3 percent growth rate respectively, buoyed by leisure travel, while the northeast and midwest will see a decrease in business jet activity of 1.2 percent and 3.9 percent respectively. “The more business-travel focused northeast and midwest continue to struggle,” said Magnus Henriksson, business unit director, Avinode Business Intelligence.

For Europe, the forecast predicts a 3.2 percent decline in business jet activity in the coming year. Southern Europe is expected to see a 4.3 percent decline, while the continent’s north, with a less wounded economy, is projected to decline by 1.3 percent.

The forecast breaks down flight activity by category of jet and predicts light jets, the dominant category, will lose market share to entry level jets in the U.S., with a decrease of 2.2 percent in the former category and a gain of 4.4 percent in the latter. By the end of 2013 Avinode projects entry-level jets will capture 10 percent of all business jet flight activity. The midsize jet category, which holds second place in market share, is expected to grow by 0.1 percent next year.

At a panel discussion following the forecast presentation, charter providers were generally in agreement with the projections. Panelists included moderator David McCown, senior consultant, Air Partner; Veriar Collins-Jenkins, director of charter, Clay Lacy Aviation; Bjorn Naf, CEO, Metrojet; Marc Drobny, senior vice president, charter and vendor services, Executive Jet Management; and Paul Travis, operations manager, Acropolis Aviation.