Some 10,120 business jets worth $257 billion are expected to be delivered over the next 10 years, according to the third annual industry forecast published yesterday by Montreal-based business aviation services firm Zenith Jet.

The detailed 49-page “bottom up” forecast estimates compounded annual growth of 16 percent for new business jet shipments from now until 2016, the predicted peak year with 1,318 delivered jets worth almost $33 billion. Zenith Jet forecast author George Tsopeis foresees a trough in 2019, though at 851 aircraft worth $22.7 billion it will still be above post-2009 levels seen to date.

In addition to its segment-level perspective of the market, the forecast provides insights into aircraft manufacturers’ product line strategies, new aircraft development and other key industry drivers. According to Zenith Jet, projected new aircraft include a Bombardier Challenger 300 upgrade (entering service next year) and a stretched derivative of this aircraft that would supercede the Challenger 605 when it enters service in 2016; Gulfstream G350, G450 and G550 replacements (entry into service 2015 to 2017); and Dassault Falcon 900 replacement (EIS 2016), 2000DX/LX replacement (EIS 2017) and 9X (EIS 2018). Zenith Jet’s forecast can be downloaded online for $499, though an executive summary is available at no charge.