Virtually none of the growth in the general aviation field in the next decade will happen in the U.S. A certain business jet company is bound to go under or be acquired. A forthcoming aircraft model will be a flop.
I hear predictions like these all the time, along with a variety of much more specificāand sometimes even much more optimisticāindustry forecasts. Rarely a week goes by when I donāt receive a report outlining how quickly the corporate aviation field will rebound, how many business jets will be sold over the next few years or what percent of the market very light jets will ultimately represent. Nearly all these forecasts arrive cloaked in plausible-sounding arguments, but thatās the trouble with predictions: they often make perfect senseāuntil they donāt.
The fast-moving technology field offers some of the best examples of how time can render logical-seeming prognostications entirely obsolete. I recently chuckled my way through a 2006 article in which PC Magazine columnist John Dvorak explained in detail why Apple could make a āphenomenal turnaroundā by abandoning its operating system and installing Windows in the Macs it sells. But I got an even bigger laugh from his 2007 column about the then-unreleased iPhone. According to Dvorakās piece, cellphones āgo in and out of style so fast that unless Apple has half a dozen variants in the pipeline, its phone, even if immediately successful, will be passĆ© within three months. There is no likelihood that Apple can be successful in a business this competitive.ā
Dvorakās advice? āIf itās smart, [Apple] will call the iPhone a āreference designā and pass it to some suckers to build with someone elseās marketing budget. Then it can wash its hands of any marketplace failures. It should do that immediately, before itās too late. Samsung Electronics might be a candidate. Otherwise Iād advise you to cover your eyes. Youāre not going to like what youāll see.ā
Think of Dvorakās predictions next time somebody tells you whatās in store for the business jet field. Forecasts can be interesting to read and even useful. But they can also be utterly wrong. And now if youāll excuse me, I believe I hear my iPhone ringing.
Jeff Burger joined Business Jet Traveler in March 2004, a few months after the publicationās launch. Besides editing the magazine, he has written many articles for it and conducted its interviews with such luminaries as Sir Richard Branson, James Carville, Suze Orman, Donald Trump, F. Lee Bailey, and Steve Van Zandt. Burger helped to oversee the introduction of BJTās annual Readers' Choice surveys and Buyersā Guide.
During his years with the magazine, it has won well over a hundred editorial awards. In 2011, Burger received the Gold Wing Award for Reporting Excellence from the National Business Aviation Association and the Aviation Journalism Award from the National Air Transportation Association. He has also won writing and editing awards from the American Society of Business Publication Editors. BJT, meanwhile, was named Best International Publication in 2017 in the Aerospace Media Awards. It was also a Magazine of the Year finalist in 2011, 2013, and 2016 and an Overall Excellence winner in 2018 in competitions sponsored by the American Society of Business Publication Editors.
Before coming to BJT, Burger spent 14 years at Medical Economics, the nationās leading business magazine for doctors, where he served on the editorial board; directed staff recruiting; oversaw a $2 million annual budget; and was financial editor, news editor, and director of special projects. He has been editor of several publications, including Phoenix Magazine in Arizona, and has been a consulting editor at Time Inc. His articles have appeared in more than 75 magazines and newspapers, among them The Los Angeles Times, Barronās, Readerās Digest, Gentlemenās Quarterly , and Family Circle. Chicago Review Press published his books, Springsteen on Springsteen: Interviews, Speeches, and Encounters, Leonard Cohen on Leonard Cohen: Interviews and Encounter, Lennon on Lennon: Conversations with John Lennon, and Dylan on Dylan: Interviews and Encounters. His music writing appears on multiple websites, including his own byjeffburger.com.
Burger, a summa cum laude graduate of the State University of New York at Albany, lives in Ridgewood, N.J. He and his wife, Madeleine, have two grown children. His off-hours passions include cooking, travel, technology, movies, and music.
