While the setbacks suffered by the business aviation industry over the past year or so have been substantial, the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) expects them to be short-lived. “As the global economy strengthens, net new business aviation orders are expected to begin recovering in 2010, leading to growth of new business aircraft deliveries in 2011/2012,” AIA president and CEO Marion Blakey said last week at the association’s annual year-end aerospace review and forecast lunch. The former FAA Administrator predicted this recession will be different from others, with the valley at the bottom of the cycle relatively shallow. “Never before has civil aviation had such a game-changer like the [Boeing] 787 ready to enter the market right when it is needed most,” Blakey said. “Other considerations are the resilient single-aisle market and the considerable amount of pent-up replacement demand, which could be driven higher if fuel costs surge.” According to AIA, whatever downturn might occur in the next 18 months will be far less severe than previous down cycles, especially the severe and sustained downturn that occurred in the 1990s.