Forecast International of Newtown, Conn., released its most recent 10-year outlook, The World Market for Business Jet Aircraft, at the Farnborough Air Show last month. It calls for slow but steady recovery for business aircraft production following the past two “difficult years.” Looking backward for a moment, the study notes that the first half of this year showed a 14-percent increase in aircraft production compared with the same period last year.
For the coming decade, Forecast International predicts that a total of 10,809 business jets will roll out of the assembly plants throughout the world–a rate of a bit more than 1,000 per year and double the number produced in the preceding decade. The analysts say that this year’s growth rate will slow somewhat during the second half, but the overall trend for the 10-year period is positive.
To derive its forecast, the company employs a pair of aircraft manufacturing specialists who talk with OEMs and component suppliers, as well as keep up with industry publications such as this one. The business aviation analysts also consult with other company experts in the fields of avionics and engines, according to Raymond Jaworowski, senior aerospace analyst.
The forecast lists which manufacturers it expects to be the market leaders in unit sales and dollar volume. The forecast predicts Cessna will lead in unit sales, with a total of 3,268 Citations entering service between this year and 2014. Following are Bombardier (1,699 jets); Eclipse Aviation (1,317 jets); and Gulfstream and Raytheon (1,083 each).
In terms of dollar value, Forecast International expects Gulfstream to lead the pack at $32.8 billion, followed by Bombardier ($32.5 billion), Dassault ($22.3 billion) and Cessna ($22.2 billion). The two segments cited as showing the most promise include entry-level and so-called personal jets, such as the Cessna CJ series and Mustang, the Eclipse 500 and the Raytheon Beechcraft Premier I. The other segment so noted is the opposite end of the economic scale–the long-range business jet class. That roster includes such new models as the Bombardier Global 5000, the Dassault Falcon 7X and Gulfstream 500 and 450.
