UK-based consultancy IBA predicts orders for between 2,100 and 3,000 aircraft at the Paris Airshow this year.

“Over the past few weeks, we have been focusing heavily on supply chain, order rumors, regional growth, ESG, rising costs, failures pointing the blame at reliability, and strengthening airline results,” said Stuart Hatcher, chief economist at IBA. However, the uncertainty created by “unfeasibly long backlogs and lead times” made it difficult for airlines to place orders if they did not know what their competitors were doing, he said.

Looking at orders already announced this year, he identified a total of 961, of which Boeing would take the majority share. Among those, IBA highlighted commitments already announced by Air India for 470 aircraft plus 70 options, a mix of 78 Boeing 787s with 43 on option for new Saudi flag carrier Riyadh Air and incumbent Saudia, and Ryanair’s MOU for 150 Boeing 737 Max 10s and 150 on option.

Existing interest in earlier variants made it unlikely that Airbus would proceed with the A220-500 for some time, while “some positive news from Boeing would be good—along the lines of light at the end of the tunnel regarding certification or more news surrounding the future of 767 freighter new deliveries in the lead-up to the 2027 deadline.” 

Turkish Airlines’ intention to order up to 600 aircraft including options, involving 400 single-aisle models and 200 widebodies from Airbus and Boeing, could presage further movement from the Gulf’s big three, although Emirates could postpone any announcement until Dubai Airshow in November, he said.

“It feels like a race to grab market share in unproven markets based on long-term predictions that have yet to show their full potential,” he concluded.