Embraer’s stated belief that the Covid-19 pandemic has created new opportunities for it to expand the fleet of E-Jets as airlines review their networks and adapt to changed traveling behavior applies acutely to the Middle East, as the pandemic interrupts traditional long-haul-to-long-haul traffic streams and gives rise to more interregional travel, according to the head of Embraer’s commercial aircraft unit for the Middle East and Africa, Hussein Dabbas. The new environment has also spurred strong interest in the Brazilian OEM’s updated concept for a next-generation 70- to 90-seat turboprop, he added.

“The appetite for [small narrowbody] purchases is absolutely coming back,” Dabbas told AIN. “Airlines need to restructure to return to profit. The aviation industry pre-Covid and post-Covid is very different,” he said, quoting the advice from management consultant Peter F. Drucker that “the greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence; it is to act with yesterday’s logic.”

While long-haul traffic largely characterized Middle East air transport pre-Covid, markets between countries within the Gulf Cooperation Council, namely Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, have grown, as has, to a lesser extent, the level of domestic travel. The Middle East counts only a limited number of countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, with a big domestic air travel market.

More and more airlines now recognize the need for “fleet rightsizing” and a shift to smaller-capacity, more versatile aircraft to match weaker demand, connect secondary cities or feed the region’s mega hubs from smaller cities, noted Dabbas. Even some low-cost carriers have begun to recognize the benefits of operating a dual fleet of narrowbody and regional aircraft to access certain markets, he said. “They are in contact with us,” revealed Dabbas. “They are realizing that on many routes they serve the Embraer regional jet is the right size,” adding that independent data point to the need for more profitable smaller airplanes to better match demand. Up to 53 percent of domestic and interregional flights in the Middle East depart with fewer than 120 passengers on board, 82 percent leave with fewer than 150 passengers, and 57 percent of domestic and interregional routes have less than one daily flight. “Aircraft with up to 150 seats will be instrumental in how quickly the industry recovers,” Dabbas stressed.

Embraer remains optimistic about the region’s growth opportunities. The OEM’s last Middle East/Africa market outlook, released in October 2020, expected the in-service fleet in its segment to rise from 760 aircraft in 2019 to 870 by 2029. Its new market outlook 2021, scheduled for release at the Dubai Airshow, predicts growth in deliveries in the region to rise by more than 10 percent over the next 10 years. Currently, 230 Embraer aircraft operate in the Middle East and Africa—most of them fly in Africa.

Mideast Warming to Turboprops?

Dabbas expressed confidence that Embraer’s upcoming next-generation turboprop will attract several customers in the Middle East and Africa because, he said, the design of using the E2 jet fuselage with the engines mounted at the rear would rid the region’s long-standing negative perception of a typical turboprop aircraft. Commercial turboprop airliners never gained traction in the Middle East, mainly due to mainstream travelers’ view of bladed propellers as old technology and the aircraft cabins as too small, uncomfortable, and noisy.

“What Embraer is trying to do is to tackle these issues head-on,” said Dabbas. “Our next-generation 70- to 90-seat turboprop will offer a jet-like experience. It will feature the same cross-section as the E-Jets family and thus offer the same space as the E2 cabins…with no middle seats and large overhead bins,” he explained. The rear fuselage-mounted engines will provide a much quieter cabin with less vibration than the traditional turboprops with engines mounted on the wings, he noted, adding that this design makes it possible to use air bridges at airports. The established environmental aspect of the turboprop—it burns less fuel than a turbojet or turbofan—remains, “but with a modern interpretation and a modern engine,” said Dabbas. “The new turboprop will do extremely well on thin regional routes, particularly in Africa where you have lots of airports with unpaved or short runways.”

The Brazilian airframer has been exploring the concept for a next-generation large turboprop for more than two years and in August revealed it had traded the initial architecture of a low-wing aircraft and wing-mounted engines for a design with two aft-mounted engines, in a configuration similar to that of its 50-seat ERJ-145 regional jet. The new passenger turboprop marks the development of the first new Western turboprop aircraft in decades and Embraer’s first new turboprop since the EMB-120 Brasilia. The clean-sheet turboprop design accounts for part of the company’s new sustainability goals, which include a target of making its aircraft 100 percent compatible with sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2030. Although too large for electric or hybrid-electric propulsion, the turboprop could conceivably incorporate liquid-hydrogen propulsion.

Ready for EVA

Outside Embraer’s typical commercial aviation business, Dabbas sees “a huge market” for the electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicle (eVTOL) under development by the company’s Ft Lauderdale, Florida-based Eve Urban Air Mobility Solutions subsidiary. Also known in the market as EVA (Electrical Vertical Aircraft), the planned eVTOL would seat four passengers—plus baggage—fly to a range of 60 miles (96 km), and draw power from eight electric propellers. The zero-emission and low noise urban mobility platform has gathered commitments involving 735 examples, including an order from lessor group Bristow and Brazil’s Avantto, each for up to 100 Eve eVTOLS. Embraer expects deliveries to start in 2026.

“There is a lot of interest for the EVA in the Middle East,” said Dabbas, citing interest in oil-rich countries like the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. He also sees a lot of interest in Africa where traffic in main urban areas “is always horrific.”

Eve has not yet announced a deal in the Middle East, but it signed a memorandum of understanding in August with Kenya Airways' Fahari Aviation subsidiary aimed at developing plans for an African network of unmanned aircraft operations, and eventually eVTOL aircraft passenger service. “We are talking to other airlines,” Dabbas said.