Delivering its latest 20-year commercial aircraft market outlook Thursday during the third day of MAKS 2019, United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) predicts narrowbodies will continue to grab increasing market share well into the future, both in Russia and around the globe. Out of a total 20-year demand of 44,310 airplanes, narrowbodies will account for some 31,000, or about 59 percent of the entire fleet by 2038, it concluded. Within the narrowbody segment, the market for 166 to 200 seats will prove the most pronounced, generating demand for some 20,500 units.

In Russia, where UAC expects the new Irkut MC-21 to generate most of its sales, the share of narrowbody demand equates to 3.3 percent of the world market in terms of numbers of airplanes and 2.9 percent in monetary value. As generally accepted by the world’s major OEMs, China will lead all regions in total deliveries, taking 9,100 airplanes, while Asia-Pacific (excluding China and India) will account for 7,900. Meanwhile, Europe will take 8,300 units while North America absorbs 8,200.

Appearing during the forecast presentation, UAC competition outlook survey projects lead Igor Panchenko spoke about a trend toward growing overcapacity in the widebody segment in particular and suggested the sector would contribute to lower profit margins due to the resulting pricing pressure. Overall, the industry will see a delay in innovation and a continuing expenditure on production capacity into the 2040s, he insisted, at least absent exogenous forces such as government interference.

“Of course, if UAC gets a state decree to revitalize the Tupolev 144 supersonic passenger jet, it will be revitalized,” explained a UAC spokesman. “If the Chinese corporation has a similar task it will be executed. But from the economic point of view, there is no basis for this kind of innovation implementation.”