Gregory Polek has spent his entire career in aviation journalism with AIN, starting as a proofreader and assistant to then-managing editor Mary Mahoney in 1995 after serving an internship with&nbsp;New Jersey Monthly&nbsp;magazine and completing his B.A. degree in English/Writing at New Jersey’s William Paterson College. By 1997 Polek accepted a position as an associate editor, covering the regional airline beat for&nbsp;Aviation International News&nbsp;in place of retiring industry veteran Don Anderson. The assignment took Polek across North America and Europe to profile regional airlines varying in size and mission from the likes of floatplane operators Kenmore Air and Chalk’s Ocean Airways to regional jet operators such as SkyWest and American Eagle. Today, in his dual role as Air Transport Editor and International Airshow Editor, Polek writes, edits, and manages AIN’s commercial aviation content while overseeing each of the company’s daily international air show publications in Paris, Farnborough, Singapore, and Dubai. Most recently Polek has assumed oversight of daily coverage of the Helicopter Association International’s annual Heli-Expo convention.

Senior Editor

Gregory Polek

Delivering its latest 20-year commercial aircraft market outlook Thursday during the third day of MAKS 2019, United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) predicts narrowbodies will continue to grab increasing market share well into the future, both in Russia and around the globe. Out of a total 20-year demand of 44,310 airplanes, narrowbodies will account for some 31,000, or about 59 percent of the entire fleet by 2038, it concluded. Within the narrowbody segment, the market for 166&nbsp;to 200 seats will prove the most pronounced, generating demand for some 20,500 units.

 


In Russia, where UAC expects the new Irkut MC-21 to generate most of its sales, the share of narrowbody demand equates to 3.3 percent of the world market in terms of numbers of airplanes and 2.9 percent in monetary value. As generally accepted by the world’s major OEMs, China will lead all regions in total deliveries, taking 9,100 airplanes, while Asia-Pacific (excluding China and India) will account for 7,900. Meanwhile, Europe will take 8,300 units while North America absorbs 8,200.

 


Appearing during the forecast presentation, UAC competition outlook survey projects lead Igor Panchenko spoke about a trend toward growing overcapacity in the widebody segment in particular&nbsp;and suggested the sector would contribute to lower profit margins due to the resulting pricing pressure. Overall, the industry will see a delay in innovation and a continuing expenditure on production capacity into the 2040s, he insisted, at least absent exogenous forces such as government interference.

 


“Of course, if UAC gets a state decree to revitalize the Tupolev 144 supersonic passenger jet, it will be revitalized,” explained a UAC spokesman. “If the Chinese corporation has a similar task it will be executed. But from the economic point of view, there is no basis for this kind of innovation implementation.”

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