Five days of industrial action by Ryanair’s Irish pilots and two 24-hour coordinated strikes by cabin crew and pilots across five EU countries last month have dimmed Ryanair’s growth prospects, prompting the company to lower its full-year profit forecast by 12 percent and trim winter capacity by 1 percent. It also reduced its passenger growth forecast by 1 million, to 138 million, excluding its Austrian venture Laudamotion. Europe’s largest low-fare carrier still expects a decent profit for the fiscal year ending March 31, though it now expects income after tax to amount between €1.1 billion and €1.2 billion ($1.39 billion) rather than the previously forecast range of €1.25 billion to €1.35 billion.
The strikes led to higher care and re-accommodation costs due to strict EU passenger rights rules and affected passenger numbers, yields, as well as forward bookings and fares into the October to December quarter, Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary said on Monday. “Ryanair cannot rule out further disruptions in the third [October to December] quarter, which may require full-year guidance to be lowered further and may necessitate further trimming of loss-making winter capacity,” he cautioned.
Higher oil prices also played a role, he said, noting that 10 percent of Ryanair volumes and all of Laudamotion’s fuel bill is unhedged. It expects its full-year fuel bill to run some €460 million higher than last year’s. It previously forecast €430 million higher fuel costs.
Starting November 5, Ryanair will close its four-aircraft Eindhoven base in the Netherlands, its two-aircraft Bremen base, and cut its five-aircraft Niederrhein base to three Boeing 737-800s. “We will also now consult with our pilots and cabin crew at these three bases to minimize job losses,” O’Leary said. “We expect to offer our pilots vacancies at other Ryanair bases but, as we have a large surplus of winter cabin crew, we will explore unpaid leave and other options to minimize cabin crew job losses.”