Global sales of new airliners with up to 150 seats over the next 20 years will total 10,550 units worth $600 billion, according to Embraer’s new market outlook. Embraer (Outside Exhibit 6) estimates market growth will drive almost two-thirds of this expansion, while the remainder will be needed for aircraft replacements, bringing the in-service fleet to 16,000 aircraft from the current 9,000. Regional growth outlooks vary considerably, according to the report, with the up to 150-seat segment forming “an ever more integral part of the global air transport ecosystem.”

The Asia-Pacific region will lead the demand, accounting for 3,000 (28 percent) of the anticipated deliveries, closely followed by North America with 2,780 (27 percent). Europe is expected to take 2,240 (21 percent) and Latin America will absorb 1,140 (11 percent). Deliveries in CIS (1,140/6 percent), Africa (450/4 percent) and the Middle East (360/3 percent) will make up the remainder.

According to Embraer, “Aircraft in the up to 150-seat segment is one of the main pillars of business sustainability, and the segment’s new product lineup, including the company’s E2 series and the Airbus A220 family (née Bombardier C Series), “challenges the paradigm that smaller aircraft necessarily have higher cost per available seat kilometer,” said Embraer Commercial Aviation president and CEO John Slattery, “and now approach the seat cost economics of larger narrowbody aircraft with roughly 20 percent trip-cost advantage.”

Embraer published its first market outlook in 2004, and they are based on a traffic demand forecast for the evolution of revenue-passenger kilometers and an aircraft demand forecast from 30-seat turboprops to widebodies.