ATR expects an 80 percent increase in the size of the 30- to 90-seat turboprop fleet over the next 20 years, meaning the industry will require 3,020 aircraft to cover replacement and growth needs. At the end of 2017, 2,260 turboprops operated in service, including out-of-production types. ATR predicts that figure will rise to 4,060 in 2037.

The company, which this year will deliver its 1,500th aircraft, updates its forecast every two years. Presenting the latest iteration, ATR vice president of marketing Zuzana Hrnkova explained that the 3,020 new aircraft will add to 1,040 now operating the company expects will remain in service by 2037. “Between 2018 and 2037, the industry will need 1,220 aircraft for replacement purposes," she said. "This figure is up by around 120 aircraft from the previous forecast as it now includes the turboprop ramp-up, which took place in mid-2000s. That leaves 1,800 aircraft needed to address growth.” 

The Asia-Pacific region will lead the world's turboprop requirement at 740 new aircraft, followed by Latin America at 420, the forecast projects.

While ATR acknowledges that new competitors might arrive, its position as the only manufacturer of new 50-seat turboprops means it will hold an extremely high percentage of the segment. The OEM expects the lack of competition in the 50-seat segment will help maintain the 75-percent market share it has achieved across the 30- to 90-seat segment since 2010.

Worldwide Growth Predicted

ATR supports its forecast with a projection for annual traffic growth of 4.5 percent. Moreover, Hrnkova noted, of the world’s commercial airports (totaling a little over 3,800), 50 percent rely exclusively on regional aircraft and 36 percent rely solely on turboprops. “The average route length is 300 nautical miles for turboprops,” she reported, noting that propjets often provide an alternative to a ferry or boat or to high-speed trains. “Of ATR flights, 82 percent are below 250 nautical miles," she said.

According to Hrnkova, the company expects the price of oil to double in the next 20 years. “That will have greater effect at regional airports, where the fuel price is different from hub airports,” she explained. “On a worldwide average, we see that the price of fuel is approximately 34 percent higher at regional airports.”

Elaborating on trends that ATR has identified in the regional aviation market, Hrnkova said that almost 60 percent of the routes in the current regional network emerged during the past 15 years, and more than half of those over the past five years. The criteria used to define those services included a maximum sector length of 900 nm and up to 450 seats daily. “That could include flights operated by regular narrowbodies,” Hrnkova acknowledged.

“We expect traffic growth in the turboprop market to be 30 percent of new routes over the next 20 years,” she noted. “There is the potential for 2,770 new routes over that time, particularly in India, Asia-Pacific, Central and South America, Africa, and China." Regional aircraft account for only 3 to 5 percent of the total fleet in China, compared with 25 percent of the total worldwide fleet. The company expects to gain certification of the ATR 72-600 by year-end.

Although ATR will soon deliver its first -600 Series aircraft for the U.S. market—to Silver Airways via a lease from Nordic Aviation Capital—Hrnkova admitted that route creation with turboprops in that country remains a challenge. “Our net growth figure does take into account that many U.S. communities have been losing service,” she confirmed. “Around 400 routes in the U.S. have disappeared over the past 10 years. But we believe there will be more opportunities for ‘boutique’ style airlines to create air links, and turboprops will work well for this.”

Beyond the commercial passenger airline forecast, Hrnkova also presented ATR’s expectations for the turboprop freighter market. “We believe the current position of three weight categories affecting our aircraft—three tons, five tons, and eight tons—will reduce to two over the next 20 years, with the three-ton category disappearing,” the v-p commented. The ATR 42 fits into the five-ton category and the ATR 72 fits in the eight-ton category.

ATR estimates a need for 460 freighters over the next 20 years, including converted aircraft as well as new machines. "We’re seeing a lot of the interest for freighters from mature markets,” she noted, emphasizing the company’s big order in November 2017 from FedEx for 30 firm ATR 72-600Fs plus 20 options.