While geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to threaten the region’s airline industry, not all carriers have suffered to the same degree. But, overall, the situation looks dire, notwithstanding the minimal effects International Air Transport Association director general Alexandre de Juniac expects to see as a result of the recently revived U.S. travel ban on citizens from several Muslim-majority countries in the region.   

“The geopolitical instability and security threats hovering in the region are not encouraging,” he told AIN. “What we have seen so far in the region is that dynamic actors are able to overcome the challenges. But the more instability you have, the less attractive the region will be.

“Especially these days the situation is very volatile. The blockade in Qatar, the war in Yemen, and the position of Iran and the Saudi-led countries are not favorable conditions for air transport.” 

Speaking of the blockade in Qatar, de Juniac stressed the importance of that country’s contribution to global connectivity. “We will help to establish normal connectivity between Qatar and the rest of the world,” he said. “We have practically helped ICAO to find an appropriate corridor for Qatar Airways and for the airlines flying to Qatar to be able to have access to Qatar.”

Regarding the war in Yemen, de Juniac expressed particular alarm over short-range missiles that are fired by uncontrolled groups. “When missiles are fired by a state army there is no problem because they apply ICAO regulations and they warn airlines,” he said. “But when missiles are fired by uncontrolled groups it is dangerous. That is what happened in Ukraine and that is the case in Yemen. They are not fired precisely, and in that case there may be a need to establish a no-fly zone.” 

The director general reacted coolly to the third version of the Trump administration’s travel ban, which the U.S. Supreme Court allowed to go into effect on December 4. The travel ban bars most citizens of Iran, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Chad, and North Korea from entering the U.S. 

In fact, he predicted few, if any, operational consequences to the airline industry. “There is little passenger traffic coming from those countries to the U.S. There are no direct flights between these countries and the U.S. and that is why we are saying that the operational consequences will be very limited.”

Despite the political turmoil, IATA forecast Middle East carriers will see net profits improve to $600 million in 2018, compared with $300 million last year. It expects traffic demand to grow by 7.0 percent, outpacing announced capacity expansion of only 4.9 percent. According to IATA, the region’s carriers face challenges to their business models from low oil revenues, regional conflict, crowded airspace, and competition from the new “superconnector,” Turkish Airlines.