Airline Traffic Growth Slows in May Amid Record Load Factors
Airfares declined during the period by 6 percent, stimulating some two-fifths of the month’s growth

Global airline traffic results for May showed that demand rose 7.7 percent compared with the same month last year, indicating a slowing of passenger traffic growth from the 10.9 percent recorded in April but still well ahead of five- and 10-year average rates, according to statistics released Thursday by the International Air Transport Association. Capacity climbed 6.1 percent and load factors rose 1.2 percentage points to 80.1 percent, marking a record high for the month. All regions, excluding the Middle East and North America, posted record-high May load factors.


After adjusting for inflation, airfares at the start of the second quarter averaged 6 percent lower than a year ago. IATA estimates that the fall in fares contributed to approximately two-fifths of the annual growth in passenger traffic seen in May. However, the degree of fare stimulus amounted to about half that seen in the second half of 2016. IATA said the stimulus will likely fade further in the context of rising airline cost pressures, while business confidence has softened. However, passenger demand will likely remain well supported during the upcoming peak travel months of July and August, it added.


“Passenger demand is solid. And we don’t foresee any weakening over the busy summer months in the Northern Hemisphere,” said IATA general director Alexandre de Juniac. “But the rising price of fuel and other input costs is likely to see airlines’ ability to stimulate markets with lower fares taper over the coming months. In parallel, rising trade protectionism and barriers to travel are worrying trends that, if unchecked, could impact demand. As a business airlines depend on borders that are open to trade and people.”


De Juniac expressed support for the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s recent decision to forego expanding its ban on personal electronic devices larger than a cell phone in airplane cabins in favor of new, “enhanced” security measures scheduled for introduction in the coming months. However, he called into question the ability of airports and airlines to meet the timeline for implementation.


“Enhanced security measures are preferable to the expansion of the current ban on the carriage of large electronic devices in the cabin,” he said. “We have seen the negative impact that this has on demand. But the timeline to implement the enhanced security measures announced by the U.S. DHS is extremely challenging. And there are many unresolved issues that need greater cooperation among states to minimize the impact on air travelers and global connectivity.”