Boeing Set To Raise Indian Airliner Fleet Growth Forecast
Boeing says India's new regional connectivity scheme will result in more demand for narrowbody airliners on new domestic routes.

Having previously forecast deliveries of 1,850 airliners to India over the next 20 years, Boeing has now indicated this figure could increase as it has not so far taken account of the traffic that could be added because of the country’s new regional connectivity scheme (RCS) set to take off by March. At this week’s Aero India show in Bangalore, the U.S. airframer also claimed that it will continue to be the market leader for widebody aircraft ordered by Indian carriers.

“Future growth in India will come from secondary and tertiary cities,” said Dinesh Keskar Boeing’s senior vice president sales for the Asia Pacific region and India. He predicted that the RCS eventually will generate more demand for narrowbody jets, like Boeing’s 737 family, after 70-seat regional jets have developed new regional routes.

The Indian government is introducing RCS, with financial incentives and subsidies, as a way to boost traffic at second- and third-tier cities. Keskar, who said that Boeing will revise its forecast for the country after the scheme takes effect, believes that once regional airlines have built routes beyond the capacity of 70-seat aircraft they will move on to develop other new routes—leaving the others to be served by larger narrowbodies.

Meanwhile, startup carrier Vistara, a joint venture between Singapore Airlines and Tata, is set to launch international operations by 2018. Keskar predicted that in selecting its widebody fleet, the new airline may well follow the example of its Singaporean parent, which recently ordered 20 777-9s and 19 787-10s.

Last month Boeing announced 100 incremental 737 Max orders from Indian budget airline SpiceJet. Keskar also predicted that this year will bring more new Indian orders for the new 737 Max narrowbody twinjets, following on from the recent order for 75 aircraft from Jet Airways.

Boeing told reporters at Aero India that it continues to see strong growth for India’s commercial aviation sector, which recorded 99 million domestic passengers last year. “In percentage terms, the amount of seat growth [as defined by available seat kilometers] is phenomenally higher than the rest of the world,” commented Keskar. “The major factors we watch – the exchange rate, fuel price and the profitability of the airlines – are all still favorable and we remain confident in the strong growth of India’s commercial aviation sector.”