Iran’s civil aviation industry could develop rapidly but huge barriers and uncertainties remain, despite the lifting of sanctions in January, Kurosh Tehranchian, partner and CEO at Axon Aviation Group, told attendees at this month's Aeropodium Iranian Aviation Conference in London.

That the event’s originally scheduled keynote speaker, former chairman and managing director of Iran Air, Dr. Hassan Shafti, could not attend due to his inability to obtain a UK visa seemed to illustrate that things haven’t changed much yet. As delegates heard from various speakers, anyone involved with Iran can easily suffer a tarnished reputation, particularly in the U.S., where many in Congress remain opposed to the lifting of sanctions. “U.S. sanctions are still in place except for aviation,” reflected Tehranchian.

In fact, Iranian officials more recently have indicated that they expect the U.S. Treasury to issue the needed licenses for conclusion of planned airliner orders involving Boeing, Airbus and ATR. However, some in the U.S. Congress have threatened to block the issuance of the licenses.

Tehranchian said that Iran, which once ordered three Concordes and even operated one on a trial basis, now counts a total fleet of 235 “mainly very old” commercial aircraft and 12 private jets, mostly Dassault Falcon 50s. Iran also operates 319 airports but, according to Tehranchian, “a lot need updating.” He reminded delegates that following the lifting of sanctions, Iran Air had ordered 118 Airbus aircraft, 109 Boeings and 40 ATR 72 turboprops.

Several other airlines, including the largest and fastest-growing, Mahan Air, aspire to acquire new airplanes as well. “But until we get through the test case of Iran Air we won’t know how quickly the others will be done,” said Tehranchian, who referenced “at least five different projects wanting to do low-cost airlines [as that] model has been working very well in the region.”

He also noted that in many ways Tehran stands better placed than the Gulf as an international hub on great circle routes between city pairs where Dubai/Doha would require a “kink.” Forecasts call for routes from India to become particularly important, and IATA projects that Iran could see 44 million annual international passengers by 2034, up from “3 million to 4 million at the moment,” said Tehranchian. “Every major hotel brand is looking at how to get into Tehran,” he added.

The JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, aka the Iran nuclear deal) requires a license to sell or lease commercial passenger aircraft for civilian use, said Tom Whalen of Whalen Law Associates. He suggested some steps Iran should take to boost its aviation sector once the licenses finally get issued: ratify the Cape Town convention; challenge that Iran is a state-sponsor or terrorism; take action to remove Mahan Air, deemed by the U.S. to have carried nuclear-related goods, from the U.S. Treasury Department’s Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) list; negotiate removal of secondary sanctions affecting U.S. firms; hire public relations firms to counter false attacks on Iran in the U.S.; and defend lawsuits in the U.S. and get “material support [for terrorism] defined.” The latter relate to terrorist atrocities that have affected individuals who have then sued Iran. In many cases courts have levied huge judgments against Iran, including one for $1.8 billion, because it failed to send representation. The total outstanding in the U.S. now amounts to around $20 billion, which Whalen suggested Iran could settle for “$3- to $4 billion.”

“I’ve told Iran Air to get a public relations man in the U.S. to counter statements against Iran,” but he suggested they’d need a license to even do that. “The chances of getting [a license] are 50:50 though,” he estimated. He also suggested that people visit Sanctions.com for a list of OFAC (U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control) rulings.

Unfortunately for all involved, politics continue to block the Boeing and Airbus orders, even though the deals appear concluded, said Rick Asper, chairman of Aviation Professionals Group. “Can politics can still interfere with those two deals [the Airbus and Boeing orders]?” he asked. “Unfortunately, politics is still there.”

“A huge percentage of the parts in Airbus aircraft are U.S. manufactured, so if the U.S. Congress doesn’t move ahead [that deal won’t get done]…and the Boeing deal is subject to OFAC approval too,” added Asper. He further said that although President Obama and President Rouhani “both endorsed [the aircraft] deals, [there has] already been some negativity from the Ayatolla [Iran’s supreme leader].”

However, he pointed to the thawing of relations between the U.S. and Cuba, the opening of which, he said, “is now considered a fait accompli.”

“[Politicians] are not using aviation as a political pawn in Cuba any more, and it’s inconceivable things could go back as people are already using it,” insisted Asper. “Opening commercial air services between the U.S. and Iran can only be good.”

José Eduardo Costas, v-p marketing and sales for Embraer Executive Jets, estimated that the commercial aircraft fleet in Iran would grow from 202 now to around 500 in 2035, while the turboprop fleet grows from 18 to 44 in that time. “So we see a total market opportunity for over 600 aircraft in the next 20 years.,” he said. “But the challenge is how to tap in to this potential market.” He reported that no Embraers are based in Iran yet, apart from a couple of Super Tucano military trainers. The U.S. rejected one sale of Chinese-manufactured ERJs to Iran.

Jordan Karatzas, executive v-p at InterVistas Consulting, said that his firm’s Dutch sister company has developed a new Master Plan for Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport. He also referenced a “total rearrangement” of the players in the Iranian air transport market since 2011, particularly with the fragmentation of the domestic market. “Mahan Air [has grown] very aggressively while Iran Air has stayed flat,” he reported. “And the Gulf carriers have made significant inroads.”

Jacques Lafitte, founder and managing partner of Brussels-based Avisa Partners, said that when he spoke at Aeropodium’s Tehran event in April, his prediction that Iran would have to “go to the back of the queue” for an open skies deal with the EU did not receive a warm reception. Nevertheless, he said, “nothing has happened since,” although he added that European authorities have done well to open some EU destinations to Iranian airlines. “EASA has done a good job and a few aircraft that were banned are now allowed back into Europe,” he said. “Iran worked hard to ensure its maintenance, et cetera was OK.” He noted that the EU operates with a small team of officials and must address a long list of countries, such as Turkey, the ASEAN nations, Qatar and the UAE. “These four negotiations are a major priority and the EU is also finalizing Brazil, Azerbaijan and Tunisia and is discussing with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Armenia, Mexico, et cetera,” said Lafitte. “So where is Iran in that? I apologize for not being very diplomatic in April, but I feel vindicated nonetheless.”