Single-aisle airliners represent an ever-growing proportion of new deliveries, while shipments of regional jets and large twin-aisle aircraft remain the smallest sectors, according to a new industry forecast. Boeing Commercial Airplanes predicts 20-year market requirements for just over 38,000 new commercial aircraft, up about 3.5 percent on its equivalent annual survey 12 months ago. The U.S. manufacturer’s new current market outlook, published last week, values all these machines at $5.6 trillion.
“The market continues to be strong and resilient,” according to marketing vice president Randy Tinseth. “We expect [it] to continue to grow.”
The global airline fleet is seen as doubling from last year’s 21,600 machines to 43,560 by 2034, when traveler numbers are expected to have reached more than seven billion a year. Boeing suggests that almost six in 10 new aircraft will be needed to accommodate growth as traffic grows at a predicted 4.9 percent annual rate, close to 5-percent annual historic trends. The balance of new deliveries, just over 40 percent, will replace “a large and growing number of aging aircraft” that will represent “about 2 to 3 percent of the installed fleet each year.”
Single-aisle, or narrowbody, designs continue to account for the bulk of deliveries, having increased from less than 60 percent of shipments forecast between 2005 and 2024 to more than 70 percent, or a total of 26,730 units, from 2015 to 2034.
“Carrying up to 75 percent of passengers on more than 70 percent of airline routes, this sector is fueled by growth in low-cost carriers (LCCs) and airlines in developing and emerging markets,” Boeing said. According to Tinseth, “LCCs will account for around 35 percent of the single-aisle market. The will require airplanes that combine the best economics with the most revenue potential.”
Small and medium-size twin-aisle, or widebody, aircraft will continue to comprise 20 to 25 percent of new deliveries, while the U.S. manufacturer maintains its pessimistic view of prospects for very large aircraft. Boeing sees requirements for 8,830 new twin-aisle designs, “led by small widebody airplanes in the 200- to 300-seat range, a [continuing] shift in demand [away] from very large airplanes.”
Boeing predicts a small market share for regional jets, which has been stabilized at 6-percent market share since 2010, but well short of the 15-percent share commanded 10 years ago.
Finally, air freight traffic is forecast to increase at 4.7 percent annually as the market strengthens, according to Boeing. Some 920 newly dedicated freighters will be needed between 2015 and 2034, it predicts.
“We’ve seen two years of solid growth and we expect that to continue,” Tinseth concluded.
