When Boeing rolled out its new ATC management system last summer, a satellite-based arrangement that takes a significantly different direction from the FAA’s solution, the aerospace giant offered few concrete details on how its plan would work.
John Hayhurst, Boeing’s president of air traffic management, spoke at Northwestern University’s Robert R. McCormick School of Engineering & Applied Science recently to provide an update on the new system, but with many of the old questions still unanswered. And now, in view of September 11, a few new questions were also on the minds of listeners. His remarks, however, delivered a few surprising admissions.
Hayhurst reiterated Boeing’s motivation to transform the air-traffic management system. “Our objective is to offer solutions that enable air travel to grow, with the capacity to accommodate that growth and make air travel safer and more secure than it is today. Boeing, an aircraft manufacturer with annual turnover of about $30 billion [in products], sees the current ATC system as a huge inhibitor of that growth. No one else has this big commercial jet business to protect.” Some experts question whether there might be more to Boeing’s motivation. Hayhurst added, “While security may not have been at the top of the list of reasons to fix the air traffic system before September 11, it probably is now.”
Boeing believes its proposed system of 17 middle-earth orbit satellites, combined with continuous datalink communication between ATC and onboard aircraft flight management systems, will prove revolutionary. It also thinks its new system, designed from the bottom up with a different infrastructure, one with distinct requirements for addressing security issues, will offer significant advantages over the FAA’s version since its all-digital brain, “is secure rather than relying on information passed on the public telephone lines.” When asked about how the turndown in air traffic and the reduction in system delays would affect Boeing’s plans, Hayhurst commented, “Perhaps the absolute need for this system is delayed a year or two because of September 11, but when you consider the security this system offers, we may need it much sooner.”
But as he added, “This is not just a technology issue. We’re struggling to enhance (ATC system) capacity. In fact, the technology is the easy part.” Hayhurst did not speak to specifics on Boeing’s implementation technology issues during this talk, citing patent concerns. “The biggest challenge to modernizing the ATC system in the U.S. is issues related to policy, infrastructure and politics.”
He said Boeing is taking the same group approach to solving the ATC conundrum that it used when building the 777–gaining consensus from stakeholders to help define the system first. When designing the 777, however, Boeing integrated the opinions of eight airlines before cutting any metal. To make its air traffic management system work, Boeing must keep considerably more plates spinning: some 40 organizations–from airlines, to pilot and controller unions to aircraft manufacturers–have some stake in the outcome.
Despite the monumental task of funneling the opinions of more than three-dozen aviation organizations, each with their own agenda, Hayhurst reported encouragingly, “We have been making progress over the past few months,” and he expected to have a common set of design requirements this month.
While declining to comment on the scale of funds Boeing has committed to the project to date, Hayhurst did say, “There is not a single dollar from the U.S. government or anyone else supporting this.” He also believes the Boeing system will easily integrate with other systems around the world should it be called upon to do so.
Since Boeing and the FAA were moving on parallel tracks toward the same end last summer, it was refreshing to hear Hayhurst say, “We have evolved from two separate plans to one that has the opportunity to come together over the longer term.” But it is that definition of long term that makes so many people uneasy.
Hayhurst admitted the aerospace giant’s eight-year timetable was only feasible if it embarked on building now and was able to continue straight through, with no resistance from any of the parties involved. “We all have to deal with the realities of life, though. The policymakers have ATC modernization on their agendas, but to widely varying degrees of importance,” Hayhurst said. “I’ll bet a lot of money this will take much longer than eight years to implement.” How much longer? “You’d need a magic wand,” he said.
If that’s true, then is all this hoopla just smoke and mirrors to keep Boeing shareholders happy? Especially now, since Boeing has announced the layoff of between 20,000 and 30,000 employees by the end of this year, it would seem the company can’t afford to pump endless cash into a program that offers a return that could be decades away. But Hayhurst calls the Boeing investment in this air-traffic modernization process “a relatively modest amount of money to spend to protect $30 billion. Overall capacity enhancement is a bigger incentive than [the ROI of] building a system like this.”
Boeing’s evaluation of the FAA’s current operational evolution plan also speaks to the aerospace company’s frustration and another possible motivation. “The FAA plan is heavily focused on the near term and on new runway construction,” Hayhurst argued. “We believe we can’t rely on runway construction alone. We need a more significant capacity enhancement than the current FAA initiatives are likely to generate. The Boeing plan will take longer to implement, but that’s why we see the two plans coming together at some point.”
Not surprisingly, a Boeing ATC solution now, rather than later, may offer the FAA a way to save face while it appears to solve the problem. But most important, it would allow Boeing to get on with its core business of manufacturing airplanes, instead of standing by with a technically superior solution while the FAA regularly trips over itself. The industry can only hope someone at the White House is listening during this lull in air traffic.