Up to 9,450 new business jets worth $280 billion are forecast to be delivered over the next 10 years, according to Honeywell Aerospace’s 23rd annual Business Aviation Outlook released on Sunday evening just ahead of NBAA 2014. This reflects an 8-percent increase in projected billings over the 2013 outlook, thanks to 200 more anticipated aircraft deliveries, “modest” list price increases and the continued strong demand for larger business jets.
Notably, annual billings are expected to surpass peak 2008 levels in 2017 and beyond, although unit deliveries are not projected to reach the 2008 peak any time during the 10-year forecast.
In the near term, Honeywell is projecting deliveries of 650 to 675 new jets this year, a single-digit percent increase from 2013. This improvement is largely due to “program schedule recoveries, new model introductions and additional fractional uptake,” the company said.
“2015 industry deliveries are anticipated to be up modestly again, reflecting momentum from several new model introductions and some gains linked to incremental global economic growth,” explained Brian Sill, Honeywell Aerospace president for business and general aviation.
Honeywell (Booth 2000) bases its forecast on its extensive survey of operators about their future aircraft purchasing plans. In its latest survey, Honeywell found that operators plan to make new jet purchases equivalent to about 23 percent of their current fleets over the next five years, as a replacement or addition. While this is several points lower than the past four survey cycles, it is in line with results of 25 percent or less that were the norm until 2006.
Of these five-year new business jet purchase plans, 19 percent are expected by year-end 2015, and 14 and 22 percent are scheduled for 2016 and 2017, respectively. Purchase timing has shifted somewhat to later compared with last year’s results, leading to a modest slowdown in projected demand for the near term, but this is offset by pre-sold positions for new models entering service over the next two years.
Operators surveyed continue to prefer larger jets–those ranging from super-midsize to ultra-long-range to bizliners–meaning these types will dominate billings over the forecast. In the near term, Honeywell said these models are expected to account for more than 75 percent of all expenditures on new business jets. Volume growth between now and 2024 will be led by this segment, reflecting 60 percent of additional units and nearly 85 percent of additional values, the company estimated.
“The strong desire for larger-cabin aircraft with greater range and advanced avionics is seen again in this year’s survey,” Sill said. “We are also seeing some improved interest in light and midsize jets this year.” In fact, the Honeywell forecast notes that the midsize and smaller jets recovered some share for the first time in several years, reflecting improved prospects for in-production aircraft and stronger interest in newer models in this class.
Regional Buying Trends
In its latest forecast, Honeywell sees a realignment of near-term regional market shares, with business jet demand from North America slipping two percentage points to 59 percent over next five years after increasing for the first time since 2010 in last year’s outlook. “New aircraft acquisition plans in North America are still significant given the region’s overall size,” Sill said. “Coupled with projected gains in fractional fleet deliveries, North American demand should still support industry volumes as some of the traditional higher-growth regions work through another year of reduced growth rates.”
Europe is expected to be the next-largest market for business jets in the next five years, accounting for 18 percent of new deliveries, up 6 percentage points from last year’s outlook. Latin America is projected to account for 17 percent of the near-term demand, followed by Asia and the Middle East each at 3 percent.
