The U.S. business jet charter market is set to continue its recovery in 2015, according to the latest projections from online charter portal Avinode. On the eve of this year’s NBAA show, the company released its Business Jet Charter Market Forecast, which shows an anticipated 3.5-percent increase in charter flights next year, compared with 2014. Over the same time frame, it sees more modest 1.6-percent growth in the European market.
The forecast predicts growth in demand for charter across all regions of the U.S. The South will see increases in flight numbers of around 4 percent in 2015, closely followed by the West where volumes will grow by 3.6 percent. The projected growth for the Northeast is expected to amount to 3.3 percent and the Midwest around 2.5 percent.
“This year, the U.S. charter market has performed extraordinarily well, demonstrating its highest annual levels of business jet travel since the financial crisis of 2008,” said Avinode CEO Niklas Berg. “We expect that by the end of 2014, the U.S. will see its highest annual levels of business jet travel for at least six years. New business models are emerging, more aircraft are being purchased and venture capital is flowing back into the market.”
Trading conditions in Europe remain less rosy, according to Avinode’s demand projections. “After six years of decline, we expect the European market to finally move back into the black in 2015, with a 1.6-percent increase in flights,” said Berg. “This aggregate figure reflects a clear divide between improving conditions in the North and ongoing challenges in the South, plus ongoing uncertainty caused by geopolitical issues between Russia and the Ukraine. While we expect the European market to improve next year, the region will take longer than the U.S. to return to its pre-recession levels.”
For 2015, Sweden-based Avinode forecasts that northern Europe, where charter demand is more related to business travel, will achieve 2.8-percent market growth. By contrast, southern Europe, where activity is generally more leisure-related and which is understood to be more seriously impacted by the military conflict in Ukraine, the anticipated increase is only 0.8 percent.
Growth Rates Vary
Analyzing projected charter demand by aircraft category, the Avinode (Booth 2279) forecast sees demand for light jets (including entry-level light and very light jets) growing in the U.S. by 2.6 percent, with the entry-level models representing a 12.5-percent increase. However, in Europe the light jet sector is set to grow by no more than 0.5 percent.
In the midsized category (including super-midsize jets) demand levels are expected to rise, respectively, by 3.1 percent and 2.2 percent in the U.S. and Europe. The projected growth for heavy jets next year will be 5.8 percent and 3.5 percent in the respective regions–mainly driven by increasing demand for ultra-long-range flights.
Avinode’s annual business aviation forecast is based on historical flight data, economic growth forecasts, aircraft deliveries and forecast demand based on Avinode Marketplace trends.
According to Berg, Avinode is planning to offer a platform for directly booking flights online. He told AIN that around 6,000 business aviation professionals currently use the website each day and that traffic from U.S. operators has increased by 40 percent over the past year.
