“Demand for business jets is far from robust, but at the margin some developments suggest improvement,” J.P.Morgan aerospace analysts said in their latest business jet monthly update, released on Tuesday.
House of Morgan
“Business jet deliveries rose 11 percent year-over-year in the first half of the year, prompting some commentary that a recovery is under way, but we view this conclusion as premature,” JPMorgan North American Research said in its latest monthly business jet outlook, released yesterday. “Tougher comparables and fewer Hawker deliveries post-bankruptcy should result in a second-half decline that holds deliveries flattish for the year.”
Last week, JPMorgan economists lowered their global GDP growth forecast for the second half of this year by 0.5 percentage points, to 2.1 percent. “If it persists,” JPMorgan Equity Research said in its just-issued business jet monthly report, “the disappointing economic data should pressure new bizjet demand, further postponing a recovery in a market in which 2011 deliveries were still about 40 percent below the 2008 peak.”
“We expect a bounce in 2012, though we believe the [business jet] recovery will start slowly and we forecast delivery growth of 8 percent,” JPMorgan Investment Research said in its latest monthly business jet market report, released today. However, evidence of a recovery on the low end is still “not compelling,” it noted.
“We sense an eagerness for a pickup in the long-depressed business jet market, particularly at the lower end, but we continue to observe mixed signals,” JPMorgan Investment Research notes in its latest market report. Despite the conflicting signals, the investment research firm still predicts an 8-percent rise in business jet deliveries this year.
Demand for new-production business jets “showed signs of perking up” in the second quarter, JPMorgan North American Equity Research noted in its monthly business jet market update.
Demand for new-production business jets “showed signs of perking up” in the second quarter, JPMorgan North American Equity Research notes in its latest monthly business jet market update. However, it is perturbed about macroeconomic concerns.
As mixed signals continue in the business jet market, JPMorgan North American Equity Research says in its latest industry update that a “decisive recovery [remains] elusive.” The investment firm notes positive trends such as “solid” first-quarter business jet orders announced by Bombardier last week, as well as declining pre-owned aircraft inventories.
There is “uneven progress” toward recovery, JPMorgan said in its latest business jet market update.
“We remain guardedly optimistic about a recovery in new business jet demand this year, but the path is a winding one and data points are mixed,” JPMorgan aerospace analyst Joseph Nadol III said in his firm’s latest monthly business jet report, released late last week.
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