Until this most recent, long and painful recession, the rule of thumb followed by those who analyze the business aviation market is that aircraft sales, new and used, follow an increase in corporate profits by about 18 to 24 months. Assuming this to be true, then business aviation should already be showing healthy growth and the completion and refurbishment segment should be close behind. But it hasn’t happened yet.
NBAA released a new study today showing that even during the worst economic times since the Great Depression, companies that relied on business aviation outperformed those that did not. According to NBAA, the companies that use business aircraft have better shareholder value and recovered from the recession more quickly than their peers.
In September 2010, the National Bureau of Economic Research declared that the recession had ended in June 2009 and a recovery was under way.
Once again monthly International Air Transport Association (IATA) airline traffic statistics reflected “positive distortion” caused by geopolitical and other factors, resulting in somewhat inflated data for March.
The charter segment has been hit particularly hard during this downturn, as the number of flights dropped drastically from year-ago levels. Flight activity has recently begun to show minor increases, but in many cases the downturn has shone a light on other challenges with which the industry must contend.
The U.S. will lead the recovery of the currently ailing business aviation industry, according to Sparta, N.J.-based consulting firm Brian Foley Associates. “This is good news since this region has always been the industry’s biggest market, accounting for 64 percent of the active worldwide business jet fleet,” noted company president Brian Foley. The recession and slowdown began in the U.S.
Sparta, N.J.-based business aviation consultancy Brian Foley Associates today said it believes the recovery of the business jet market will be sooner than previous estimates, despite “being nowhere near the bottom” of the current market cycle. “It’s hard to think recovery in this environment, but there’s reason to believe that we may come out of this a little sooner than widely expected,” noted company president Brian Foley.
The business jet market is headed for a 15-percent downturn following a peak in deliveries in 2010, according to J.P. Morgan industry analysts. However, the downturn will be smaller than the previous market slowdown in 2001 and 2002, which resulted in a 31-percent decline.
Sparta, N.J.-based Brian Foley Associates, a consultant for investors entering into business aviation ventures, asserts that the outlooks of OEMs and other forecasters are overly optimistic. “The next delivery trough will be more pronounced than generally accepted and the recovery much longer,” noted president Brian Foley.