AIN Interatives: Ten-Year Business Aviation Forecasts

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Market forecasts for new business aircraft deliveries from three of the world’s leading aerospace manufacturers show a difference of 1,398 aircraft between the lowest and the highest. Bombardier and Embraer do not include very light jets, but Honeywell, with the smallest forecast number, does include VLJs. Why a difference of more than 14%? Perhaps Bombardier’s more aggressive forecast starting in 2016. What do you think? Let us know.

Hover your cursor over the plot points on the chart to reveal each manufacturer's actual numbers.

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Sources: Bombardier, Embraer and Honeywell, 2013-2022 Business Aircraft Delivery Forecasts.

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Chris Rodgers
on February 26, 2013 - 2:26am

I think Bombardier's optimism is well-founded. They have a mature product line, particularly in the large cabin and super mid-size space although the LJ85 has suffered further delays recently. The Global 7000 and 8000 are not really clean-sheet designs which is positive, given the growth pains that new designs experience. In terms of geographical presence, BBA have a very good foot-print where it matters, the BRICS countries and from an African perspective where growth opportunities are massive, BBA are already quite dominant in the larger bizjet space. In the South African context, the de facto gateway to Africa, we have seen several new and pre-owned Challengers and Globals recently.

The dark horse in this race is Cessna, who at the lower end of the bizjet market have enjoyed substantial success and no doubt the Latitude and Longitude will be very well received in Africa, where airports are few and distances, great. I have also heard a rumour that Cessna have a program to "re-manufacture" Bravo's with FJ-44 engines, Garmin avionics, paint and interior and sell them at very competitive prices with a limited warranty. If its true, smart move, keeps people in jobs and avoids the expensive and time consuming full type certification. The result would be a very efficient and well priced aircraft.

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