Bizav Deliveries Will Recover in ’12
The Teal Group’s 19th annual Business Jet Overview indicates that business aircraft have been hit harder by the economic crisis than any other aerospace market. According to Teal, business jet deliveries “won’t see a recovery to the 2008 peak level for many years to come.” New business jet deliveries won’t start to recover until 2012, it said, with 2011 predicted to be a trough year in which deliveries are 40 percent below last year’s. The research company’s forecast then calls for a five-year recovery period with 10-percent growth per year starting in 2012. Teal estimates production of 12,768 business aircraft worth $195.9 billion (2009 dollars) over the next 10 years. For comparison, 10,568 business aircraft worth $159.2 billion (2009 dollars) were delivered over the past 10 years. However, last year’s Teal Group forecast called for 18,401 business aircraft (including 14,289 jets) worth $270.6 billion in 2008 to 2017. The 2009 to 2018 forecast includes 9,300 business jets worth $153.9 billion; 575 bizliners worth $29.6 billion; and 2,893 business turboprops valued at $12.4 billion. As for business jets, Teal predicts that Gulfstream and Bombardier will be the market leaders–with 24.8 percent and 23.2 percent, respectively, by value of deliveries– followed by Cessna, Dassault, Hawker Beech-craft, Embraer and Honda. “Even at the low point of our forecast, the business jet industry will be well over twice as large as it was in any year prior to 1997,” Teal concluded.